Determinants of farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract

Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability, which is mostly attributable to the ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) phenomenon (Salafsky, 1994; Amien et al., 1996; Datt and Hoogeveen, 2003). In Southeast Asia, El Niño is associated with comparatively dry conditions: in four El Niño years between 1973 and 1992, the average annual rainfall amounted to only 67% of the 20 year average in Java, Indonesia, depressing rice yields by 50% (Amien et al., 1996). There is evidence that, in concert with global warming, the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events will increase during the 21st century and the impacts of these changes will notably hit the poor (McCarthy et al., 2001 pp. 6-7).