Survival Analysis for Telecomunication Prepaid Number Customer

Abstract

Telecomunication prepaid customer has increased significanly compared to postpaid customers. The growth in prepaid is driven by a end-to-end simple ecosystem that is built by telecommunication operator, for example started pack can be bought anywhere anytime, retail outlet for voucher can be found everywhere. That simplicity has been creating another effect to customer in which they can easily switch sim card after the balance run out.That behavior driven by regulation in buying prepaid SIM that not optimum in which customer data can not be validated. The impact of rotational prepaid customer gives a high cost to telecommunication provider and the availability of number becomes limited. For customers, the impact of rotational SIM has made them vulnerable from spamming. Those impact can be minimized if regulator and telecommunication operator knows the factors that drives customer changing their SIM cards.This study is to define the factors which has driven customers in buying new SIM cards, by survival model of prepaid customers and to define the probability loyal customer based on significant characteristics. Data in this study is based on survey to 300 prepaid customers in DKI Jakarta. Survival Analysis is a statistical technique to define the pattern of survivals based on failure times and survival times. Data of survival times is measured from the time customer bought the SIM card until event in which customer stop using it. In his study, characteristic that are both significantly effect to drives rotational customer is age, voucher price and income. Based on the value of its hazard ratio, age 16 until 18 years, income 1.5 until 3 million voucher price under 10 thousand rupies category is an indicator that gives customer the greatest influence in determining the level of one’s impact of rotational prepaid customer.