Aplikasi dataluaran regCM3 untuk analisis kekeringan di Sub DAS Seluna

Abstract

Assessment of drought characteristics requires long historical climate data. In many cases, long historical data is hardly available. Climate dynamic model is very potential to be used for reconstructing long historical climate data. This study aims to reconstruct daily climate data using climate model RegCM3 and to assess the characteristic of drought occurrence in rice paddy using the reconstructed data from the climate model. The drought analysis was done using water balance model. The result of the analysis suggests that the development of correction factor for RegCM3 is required before the reconstructed data is used for drought analysis. The pattern of drought generated using the reconstructed data is similar to that of the observed ones. The result of analysis indicates that the rice start suffering from drought when the soil water has dropped below 30% of field capacity and this condition occurs mostly during August to October. This study recommends the use of RegCM3 output for climate impact analysis in areas where daily climate data is limited or not available.