Rice Monitoring System Based on Modelling Approach.

Abstract

West java provinces is a central rice production in Java islands and contribute more than 30% of total rice production in Java islands. Even though the irrigation paddy field area dominant, the weather condition still influence rice production in that province. The objective of this study is design rice crop monitoring system based on weather variable and leaf area index which all the input derived by remote sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Combination several sources of active and passive remote sensing data with NWP data as an input for crop simulation model successful to monitor rice yields in West Java province. The rice crop yield during 2004 until 2008 is 52.9 Kw/ha, 46 Kw/ha, 40.7 Kw/ha, 52.7 Kw/ha, and 49.5 Kw/ha respectively. During 2004 - 2008, the error of the model ranged from 2.9% until 22.9% at West Java province while in regency level was varied from 0.2% until 49.3%. The coefficient of determination (r2)between result of the model with reference data was 0.7 in rice production analysis during 5 years simulation.Results of the model were more accurate in La-Nina. In El-Nino events, the farmer in several regencies such as Karawang, Indramayu and Bekasi uses irrigation to irrigate the paddy field. Consequently, the rice production not directly decreased in those regencies like simulated result of the model.