Rancang bangun sistem dinamis pengambilan keputusan kompleks pengembangan agroindustri gula tebu

Abstract

The modeling outlined in this research is an initiative to find approaches to the development of sugar cane agroindustry and its related complex decision making processes. The model is expected to be used for optimizing added values and to better evaluating the impact of relevant decisions associated with information available across the components. The entirely model consists of (i) system dynamic model, for mapping entirely system, decision making purposes and learning through simulation process, (ii) interpretive structural modeling to visualize vision, generate ideas, and compose unstructured ideas into structural and operational steps of actions, (iii) analytical network process as an approach to make decisions and policies by accommodating complexity of internal and external criteria, and (iv) Bayesian believe network as an approach to look at the likelihood of realization under specific scenarios. The simulation indicates that demand for sugar is relatively stable and predictable. In the other hand the supply is relatively volatile due to productivity level, land use competition with other crops, climatic factor, market sentiment caused by economic factor, trade and socio-politico factors. The development of sugar cane agroindustry requires multidimensional facets and inter-organizational decision making along the process of adding values to sugar cane plantation, sugar production, trading (export-import), and distribution to final consumers. The simulation shows that the improvement of productivity and manufacturing can be achieved by mainly improving better cane seed, larger cane field, good planting and estate management practice, and betterment of machineries. The trade-distribution management requires timely scheduling and precise calculation for importation of raw sugar, white sugar or refined sugar. The majority of stakeholders suggest in order to develop the performance of sugar cane agroindustry, there should be attempts to innovate product alternatives aside from conventional products, e.g ethanol as alternative energy source, liquefied sugar.

Agroindustri gula tebu merupakan industri dengan karakter sistem dinamis yang kompleks (complex dynamic system), bercirikan adanya hubungan terus menerus antar pelaku atau anggota sistem. Penggunaan pendekatan sistem dinamis dapat diterapkan dalam rangka melakukan kajian agroindustri gula tebu seperti pada kajian proses pegambilan keputusan untuk tujuan pengembangan. Pasokan produksi gula tebu nasional lebih rendah jumlahnya dari pada permintaan, sehingga terjadi defisit pasokan gula. Hingga saat ini persoalan defisit pasokan belum dapat teratasi dengan baik. Kompleksitas permasalahan dimulai ketika tingkat produktifitas pertanian tebu dan pabrik gula masih rendah. Rendahnya produktifitas pertanian tebu ditengarai terjadi karena penurunan luas lahan tanam, pergeseran lahan dari lahan basah ke lahan kering yang disebabkan karena persaingan penggunaan lahan tanam oleh berbagai jenis tanaman lainya serta meningkatnya alih fungsi lahan bagi keperluan lain di luar pertanian. Penurunan produktifitas pabrik gula disebabkan karena semakin tua usia mesin yang kurang diimbangi oleh peremajaan mesin baru yang lebih produktif. Permasalahan non teknis pertanian masih sering timbul, seperti terjadi ketidaktepatan pelaksanaan kebijakan importasi gula yang dilakukan pada saat tingkat persediaan gula dalam negeri masih tinggi dan mencukupi. Persediaan gula yang berlebih ini dapat mengakibatkan penurunan harga. Permasalahan inilah yang secara perlahan telah mengurangi daya mampu petani tebu dan pabrik gula sehingga produktifitas menurun, pasok bahan baku tebu menurun, efisiensi pabrik menurun dan peremajaan pabrik terlantar hingga gejolak harga gula sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi secara tinggi.