Contiguous Diseases Outbreak In Indonesia: The Applications Of Spatial Scan Statistics Method

Abstract

The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many nationals, states, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems without statistical testing. Spatial scan statistic is a statistical tool to detect location of clusters (outbreak) of interest. This paper shows how scan statistic method detects diseases clusters. The applications are on detections of contiguous diseases (HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria) hotspot in 2001 - 2006. SaTScan software was used for the computation. As the result, for AIDS cases in Indonesia, there was a moving hotspot area of the mortality number from 2002 to 2006. In 2002, AIDS mortality hotspot is around east part, but in 2006, it was around the central part of Indonesia. The spreading of Tuberculosis in Indonesia was around east and central part of the country in 2001, whereas, in 2002 a reduction of the hotspot was in the central part. For malaria cases, the cluster regions of diseases cases were found, that the cluster regions of high malaria cases tend to decrease from year to year. The highest was in the east and central part of the country in 2001 and 2002.