Analisis Perubahan Perolehan Suara Partai Politik pada Pemilu 2004 dan 2009

Abstract

Base on the ideology, political parties can be grouped into three groups are Nationalist, Religious, and Mixture Political Party. The presence of new parties in each group changed political party votes in general election 2004 to 2009. It was caused by the change in political attitudes of voters. These factors which influenced were gender, residence area, beginner voter, level of educational background, religion (followers), rank of unemployment, percapita montly expenditure, number of poor people, gross regional domestic product, and human development index (region characteristics). The cluster, biplot, and canonical correlation analysis were used to describe the change result vote of three groups political party. The results of this research showed that the change of political party votes were classified into four clusters province. Moreover, the change of votes a political party has a relationship with moslem population percentage, urban population percentage, number of poor people, percapita montly expenditure, gross regional domestic product, and beginner voter percentage. The number of member cluster 1 and 4 was only 1 province were Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and East Java. In both provinces, the Nationalist Political Party tends to be accepted as the party of their choice. In cluster 3, the number of members was 7 provinces which the people tend to choose the Mixture Political Party. While the cluster 2 has a lot of members (23 provinces) which people tend to choose the Nationalist and Religious Political Party. The results of canonical correlation in cluster 2 show that the change of political party on the Nationalist and Mixture Political Party has relationship with the region characteristic on the percentage of the male population and the percentage of urban population. Beside that, the cluster 2 has many voter to choose the Nationalist and Mixture Political Party.

Pemilihan umum legislatif dilaksanakan sebanyak 10 kali di Indonesia dari tahun 1955 sampai 2009. Menurut asas partai politik (parpol), parpol-parpol dapat dikelompokkan ke dalam 3 kelompok parpol, yaitu Parpol Nasionalis, Parpol Agamis, dan Parpol Campuran. Parpol yang termasuk Parpol Nasionalis adalah Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat, Partai Pengusaha dan Pekerja Indonesia, Partai Peduli Rakyat Nasional, Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya, Partai Barisan Nasional, Partai Kedaulatan, Partai Pemuda Indonesia, Partai Demokrasi Pembaruan, Partai Republika Nusantara, Partai Nasionalis Indonesia Marhaenisme, Partai Buruh Sosial Demokrat, Partai Merdeka, Partai Persatuan Demokrasi Kebangsaan, Partai Perjuangan Indonesia Baru, Partai Nasional Benteng Kerakyatan Indonesia, Partai Demokrat, Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia, Partai Penegak Demokrasi Indonesia, Partai Karya Peduli Bangsa, Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, Partai Golongan Karya, Partai Patriot, Partai Persatuan Daerah, Partai Pelopor, Partai Karya Perjuangan, dan Partai Indonesia Sejahtera. Parpol-parpol yang tergolong Parpol Agamis adalah Partai Matahari Bangsa, Partai Bulan Bintang, Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, Partai Kebangkitan Nasional Ulama, Partai Persatuan Nahdlatul Ummah Indonesia, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera, dan Partai Bintang Reformasi. Sedangkan parpol-parpol yang dapat dikelompokkan kedalam Parpol Campuran adalah Partai Amanat Nasional, Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, Partai Kasih Demokrasi Indonesia, Partai Damai Sejahtera, dan Partai Sarikat Indonesia.