Peramalan dan Model Probabilistik Persediaan pada Produk Fesyen Distro Club Bogor

Abstract

Distro muncul sebagai salah satu bentuk inovasi dalam persaingan industri fesyen di Indonesia yang dinamis. Penelitian ini dilakukan dari bulan Februari-Mei 2024 di Distro Club Kota Bogor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengklasifikasikan prioritas kategori barang, menganalisis sistem peramalan permintaan paling efektif, dan menentukan tingkat safety stock dan reorder point. Analisis ABC mengidentifikasi kategori prioritas yaitu t-shirt, hoodie, sepatu, jaket, long sleeve, dan long shirt yang berkontribusi terbesar terhadap nilai penjualan. Metode Winter's Exponential Smoothing dipilih sebagai metode peramalan terbaik dengan bobot optimal 0,9. Penerapan model probabilistik dibagi menjadi 2 periode. Untuk bulan April, safety stock (SS) dapat mengantisipasi lonjakan permintaan Idul Fitri dengan SS t-shirt 249 unit, hoodie 85 unit, sepatu 7 unit, jaket 24 unit, long sleeve 29 unit, long shirt 19 unit. Untuk selain bulan April, SS t-shirt 242 unit, hoodie 69 unit, sepatu 41 unit, jaket 20 unit, long sleeve 36 unit, long shirt 25 unit. ROP t-shirt 273 unit, hoodie 80 unit, sepatu 45 unit, jaket 23 unit, long sleeve 41 unit, long shirt 27 unit.

Distro emerged as a form of innovation in the dynamic competition of the fashion industry in Indonesia. This research was conducted from February to May 2024 at Distro Club Bogor City. This research aims to classify the priority categories of goods, analyze the most effective demand forecasting system, and determine the level of safety stock and reorder point. ABC analysis identifies priority categories, namely t-shirts, hoodies, shoes, jackets, long sleeves, and long shirts that contribute the most to sales value. Winter's Exponential Smoothing method was selected as the best forecasting method with an optimal weight of 0.9. The application of the probabilistic model is divided into 2 periods. For the month of April, safety stock (SS) can anticipate the surge in demand for Idul Fitri with SS t-shirts 249 units, hoodies 85 units, shoes 7 units, jackets 24 units, long sleeves 29 units, long shirts 19 units. For other than April, SS t-shirt 242 units, hoodie 69 units, shoes 41 units, jacket 20 units, long sleeve 36 units, long shirt 25 units. ROP t-shirt 273 units, hoodie 80 units, shoes 45 units, jacket 23 units, long sleeve 41 units, long shirt 27 units.