Tsunami risk assessment using probabilistic approach and GIS-based SAW Method: case study coastal area of Padang Sumatera Barat, Indonesia

Abstract

Tsunamis are among the world's most destructive natural hazards. Tsunami is a system of gravity waves formed in the sea as a result of a large-scale disturbance of sea level over a short duration of time. A tsunamigenic earthquake is an earthquake that has generated a tsunami. In Indonesia, during the period 1600-2000, tsunamigenic earthquake occurrences are very often (90.5%). The objective of this research is to assess tsunami risk using Probabilistic approach and GIS-based SAW method, on coastal area of Padang, Sumatera Barat province, Indonesia as a case study. The Probabilistic approach was chosen to assess the probability of distributions and recurrence times (return periods) for tsunamigenic earthquakes with different magnitudes, for Indonesian region in Eurasia plate. The GIS-based SAW method is required to assess tsunami risk as spatial information, using the integration of the hazard and vulnerability. The outputs of this research are the probability of future tsunami for Indonesian region in Eurasia plate, tsunami risk zone and regional planning recommendation for coastal area of Padang.