MODEL SWASEMBADA BERAS YANG BERKELANJUTAN UNTUK MENDUKUNG KEDAULATAN DAN KETAHANAN PANGAN NASIONAL

Abstract

Objective of this study is to construct a national sustainable rice self-sufficiency model and look for a policy alternative to support sustainable rice self-sufficiency based on dynamic system approach. Data used as base year was 2012 and simulation years are 2012–2022. National rice self-sufficiency model divided into two subsystems, namely supply side and demand side. Result of dynamic system model showed that rice selfsufficiency in 2014 target can be achieved, but does not sustainable during the simulation period (2012–2014). Result of dynamic system simulation indicates that productivity increase, production, rice field construction, and land conversion control provide better system performance on sustainable rice self sufficiency efforts in the future than policies on the demand side such as efforts to decrease population growth and per-capita rice consumption. Policy on intensification plus supply side variables namely productivity improvement, production, and losses reduction contribute more to sustainable rise selfsufficiency achievement than policy on extencification. To achieve sustainable rice self sufficiency, government is expected to continue its effort to increase rice production by providing improvement on better seed varieties, cropping intensity, farming technology, and processing. Besides land conversion control, in order to achieve sustainable rice selfsufficiency in the long run, rice field construction in outer Java, especially Sumatera and Sulawesi regions is needed.