Model Pendugaan Kerugian Akibat Bencana Letusan Gunung Api di Sektor Pertanian

Abstract

Indonesia is an agricultural country. Ironically, as an agricultural country Indonesia has yet to have the independence and sovereignty in terms of food needs for its people. This is compounded by the disasters that occurred in Indonesia, which led to decreased productivity in the agricultural sector. One such disaster is of volcanic eruptions. The hot lava, cold lava and ash as well as burst of volcanic materials emitted when a volcanic eruption occurred has caused damage to land, crops, horticulture and plantation located around the erupting volcano. Of course this can cause losses in the agricultural sector. Therefore, in this study, will be developed loss estimation models due to volcanic eruption in the agricultural sector. The loss estimation model used was adopted from a model developed by the International Center of Geohazard (ICG), through NORSAR (Norway) and the University of Alicante (Spain) implemented in a tool called SELENA (Seismic Loss Estimation using logic Approach tree) which is used to estimate the economic loss due to the earthquake. Because we assumed that earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have the same probability of damage depends on the distance to the center of the disaster, then the SELENA model can be applied to volcanic eruption by adjusting some parameters. Some parameters adjusted are the type of occupancy, type of building and level of damage is thought to match with the type of plant, plant age and disaster-prone zones. Calculation of area planted, probability of damages and costs of investment also need to be adjusted to calculate the total economic loss. Based on loss estimation model and by using the data area planted for each plant type-i aged-j in zone-k and hypothetical data of total damaged probability, plant type-i damaged probability, plant aged-j damaged probability, plant in zone-k damaged probability obtained value of the economic loss and interval of loss for each plant type-i agedj in zone-k. The economic loss determined in this thesis might be used by local goverment or center goverment to calculate the amount of funds required following this natural distater.