Lintasan dan Model Spasial Deforestasi di Kalimantan Periode 2000-2013

Abstract

Carbon emissions in Indonesia was contributed by the forestry sector. Yet, forest absorbs carbon emissions by photosynthesis processes and stores it in the forest biomass. This conditions causes the forestry sector could played a main role in the efforts to reduce global warming. Emission in forestry sector is mainly caused by deforestation for various purposes. Sustainable forest management approaches as important mechanisms to ensure balance in the use of forest resources for humans and the environment. Kalimantan island has large forest cover and has high rate deforestation. The trajectory and spatial model of deforestation was expected to provide more detailed information about the phenomenon of deforestation in Kalimantan that could be organized on sustainable forest management planning. This study used time-series land cover data from Ministry of Forestry in 2000–2013 and validated with SPOT 5/6 images in 2013. land cover data was used to analyzed the trajectory and spatial model of deforestation. The spatial model of deforestation were developed using logistic regression with data in 2000–2006 and then implemented in 2006–2013. The variables that used to predicted influence on the models were slope, altitude, peatlands, distance from forest edge, distance from plantations edge, distance from road, distance from river, farmer households, human population and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDRP). Trajectory analysis of deforestation in Kalimantan in the period 2000-2013 suggests that a deforested has not been optimally exploited because most of land cover were still in the form of shrubs until the end of the period. The results of logistic regression analysis that obtained spatial model of deforestation in Kalimantan Pi = 1.1480714 - (0.033262*slope) - (0.002242*elevation) - (0.000413*distance from forest edge) + (0.000045*GDRP). The result of validation test of deforestation model in 2000–2006 has a value of overall accuracy about 79.64% and model of deforestation in 2006–2013 has value of overall accuracy about 77.01%.