Integrasi Pasar dan Respon Penawaran Daging Sapi di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's beef needs are met from three sources, namely local beef, imported cattle and beef imports. This is because local beef production in 2013 amounted to 545 600 tonnes, while beef consumption reached 757 088 tonnes. This leads to the presence of excess demand in order to meet the needs of domestic beef and veal imports carried out beef. In order to increase the availability of beef in Indonesia, there are still some problems which are beef production centers in Indonesia are still concentrated in a few regions such as East Java and NTB, while regional consumption centers are in Greater Jakarta. The second problem is the liberalization of the beef market, where custom duties beef from abroad will be lower than previous implications on the price of imported beef to be much cheaper and the price of local beef that follow the movement of the price of beef imports also become cheaper than ever, this leads to fluctuations in the price of beef in the domestic market to fully follow the market mechanism. In addition, there are other issues that beef production is still low. Beef cattle farm productivity is still low and caused by the majority of livestock breeders in Indonesia that is dominated by people who are still subsistence so that the average farmer in Indonesia responded less to changes in the price of beef at this time continues to increase. The purposes of this study were to: (1) analyze the integration of the beef market center's cut in some provinces and other provinces in Indonesia, (2) analyze the integration of the domestic beef market in Indonesia with the world's beef market, (3) analyze the response to the breeder supply's changes in the price of beef in Indonesia. This research used the model VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to analyze the integration of the beef market and used the model ECM (Error Correction Model) to analyze the supply response of beef. The data used were the time series data (time series) in the months (January 2009 to December 2013) and the data quarterly (first quarter 2001 to fourth quarter 2013). Data obtained from several agencies such as the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank of Indonesia, Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health and the Ministry of Trade. The results showed that there was co-integration (integration in the long term) between beef production areas (East Java and NTB) with consumption centers (Jakarta and West Java), but the integration did not occur, and which was the market for commodity beef could not be treated as a single market and changes in the market price of beef production center which was not necessarily the same impact on the change in the price of beef in beef consumption centers. This was also confirmed by the results of the Granger causality test which showed that prices in central areas of consumption were not necessarily affecting the beef prices in central areas of consumption, and vice versa. Therefore, the response rates from central areas to the consumption of beef production areas still were unidirectional. This suggested that one of the markets was the reference market and the other market was a market follower. Beef consumption center (Jakarta Province) was a reference market or centers in the marketing of beef. The integration of the domestic beef market with the world beef market indicated a relationship of integration in the long term (co integration), but in the short term there were still imbalances that required adjustments to achieve long-term balance. The relationship between the price of domestic beef and the beef's price was positive which indicated that an increase in the price of beef in the world market would be responded by the domestic market by increasing prices and vice versa. Based on the results of Granger causality test, it showed that the world's only beef prices were affecting domestic beef prices, while the price of domestic beef could not affect the price of world's beef. This was due to the fact that Indonesia is a small country and a net importer of beef, so the changes occurring in the international market will affect the price of domestic beef, but instead, it changes in the price of domestic beef that wouldn't affect the world price of beef. The supplying of beef is inelastic to the price of domestic beef. It can be caused by most of Indonesian farmers that are breeders of the people who are still subsistence and in a small scale, so that the change in the price of beef does not affect the supply of beef due to the nature of Indonesian cattle ranchers who are not responsive to price changes. In addition, where the asymmetry information is thought to occur in the event of changes in consumer prices that was not distributed to producers, thus causing the elastic changes in deals of beef prices. Beef supply responses that negatively affect milk price movements also showed that the sources of the supply of beef came not only from cattle but also from dairy cows. Beef offers are affected by feeding prices, the increase in feeding prices may lead to a decrease in the supply of beef. Therefore, the development of agri-food is absolutely necessary if Indonesia intends to achieve self-sufficiency in beef. In addition, the offer is affected by the number of beef cattle slaughtered as a cause to the number of cattle slaughtered that indicated the availability of beef.