Analisis Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia terhadap Harga Karet Alam Domestik

Abstract

Natural rubber is one of the leading comodity estate crop subsector in Indonesia. However, over the past few years the domestic natural rubber prices tended to fluctuate. One of the external factors that affects the price of domestic natural rubber is the price of world crude oil. The purposes of this study are to analyze the impact world crude oil prices fluctuation and other factors that effect the domestic natural rubber prices and to analyze determinant factors influencing domestic natural rubber prices. This research was analyzed with VECM using time series data from March 2008 to December 2013. The result of VECM estimation indicates that world crude oil price affects the domestic natural rubber prices in the long term. The other variables that also affect the domestic price of natural rubber in the long term are the domestic natural rubber production and inflation. The production of natural rubber gives the biggest impact in domestic natural rubber prices. Meanwhile, the world crude oil has a small effect to domestic natural rubber price.