Fitting Model pada Data Jumlah Mahasiswa Baru Institut Pertanian Bogor Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen dan Hsu

Abstract

Forecasting is an activity that is carried out to predict the value of a variable in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict the number of the new students at Bogor Agricultural University using Chen’s fuzzy time series (CFTS) method and the fuzzy time series method which is described by Steven (SFTS) and to compare the two methods by looking at the error rate prediction results using the Mean Absolute percentage Error (MAPE). Fuzzy time series forecasting is a method that uses fuzzy sets as a basis for the prediction process. CFTS method and SFTS method have some differences so that the results also different. The result obtained using the CFTS method is equal to 0.96%, while that of SFTS (2013) is 2.96%. So it can be concluded that CFTS method has a smaller error rate in predicting the number of new students at Bogor Agricultural University.