Analisis Faktor-faktor Makroekonomi yang Memengaruhi Pertumbuhan Reksa Dana Syariah dan Perkembangannya di Indonesia

Abstract

Islamic mutual fund is one of investment instruments in the Islamic capital market which consists of a collection of funds from investors who are managed by professional managers and placement of allocated funds diversified. The purpose of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic factors that influence the growth of Islamic mutual funds in Indonesia, which is seen through growth in net asset value (NAV) of Islamic mutual funds, and predict the NAV of Islamic mutual funds in the future. This study uses VECM models with monthly data from January 2009 to December 2013. The variables used are NAV of Islamic mutual funds, BI rate, inflation, JII, exchange rate, and Money Supply (M2). The results showed that no variables that significantly affect the NAV of Islamic mutual funds in short term. In the long term, variable BI rate, JII, and the Money Supply (M2) significantly affect the NAV of Islamic mutual funds. Inflation and exchange rate variables have no significant effect in both short and long term. The variable that has the greatest influence on NAV of Islamic mutual funds is BI rate, apart from the variable NAV of Islamic mutual funds itself. NAV of Islamic mutual funds in the next 20 months has increased. The increase that occurs due to changes in the independent variables responded positively by NAV of Islamic mutual funds so that the value of the NAV of Islamic mutual funds has increased.