Dampak nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan uang beredar (M2) terhadap inflasi Indonesia periode tahun 2002-2012

Abstract

Inflation is a phenomenon of rising prices of goods and services in general. Inflation control becomes an important task for the goverment that controlled prices of goods and services in the community. Inflation rate is influenced by domestic and foreign factors. The crisis that comes from foreign such as the 2005 and 2008 impact of high inflation in the country. The purpose of the study is to see the effect of exchange rate and money growth on inflation Indonesia from 2002 until 2012. Method used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study used quartal time series from quartal 1 on 2002 until quartal 4 on 2012. According to Impulse Response Function test, the results of this study show that exchange rate variable and money growth variable have a positive impact on inflation for the next twenty quarters (5 years). According to Variance Decomposition test shows that money growth variable has a dominant impact than exchange rate variable for the next twenty quarters (5 years).