Analisis Pergerakan Harga Internasional Minyak Bumi, CPO, dan Kedelai dengan Pendekatan VECM

Abstract

The issue of energy conversion became popular for the past few decades. Bioenergy is a leading products that are considered capable of replacing petroleum, because it is more green and sustain. If the demand for agricultural products was increased, the price of them would be increased too (ceteris paribus). By looking at monthly price between 2004-2013 from World Bank, this research studied the pattern of crude oil, crude palm oil (CPO), and soybeans price movements under an integrated market condition. The movement prices were analyzed by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), with FEVD and IRF approached, which indicated that there was cointegration between the crude oil price against soybeans and CPO price. Furthermore, the results of Granger causality test showed crude oil price had the two-way causal relationship with the CPO price, but not with soybeans price. Meanwhile, soybeans price was heavily influnced by the movement price of CPO in the long term .