Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Jasa Transportasi Kereta Api Commuter Line Jabodetabek

Abstract

Commuter Line railway transportation is one of the mass transportation that organize activity of transportation services in the Jabodetabek areas. The objectives of this research are to identify the data’s pattern of passenger demand volume, analyzed of passenger demand forecasting quantitatively, and analyzed of passenger demand forecasting qualitatively. Quantitative forecasting use the ARIMA’s method and Double Exponential Smoothing than compute the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for each models to find the best forecasting model. The smallest MAPE is 9.7159 from Double Exponential Smoothing Winter version method. Qualitative method use multiple linear regression and the model result is Y=16.668+0.107X1-0.62X2+0.49X3-0.49X4- 0.009X5+ε.