Dinamika Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Kecukupan Usahatani di Kabupaten Subang

Abstract

Subang regency is located adjacent to Jakarta on the north coast of West Java. This strategic location has positioned Subang for having an added value of easy access. Therefore, it is exposed to increasing regional growth and development. Approximately 11,250 ha of the area have been allocated in a spatial plan as industrial area. The allocation causes land alteration, primarily in agricultural fields. Considering its significant impact, land conversion needs to be controlled. This research aims to observe the patterns of agricultural land use change in Subang during 2007-2013, as well as to study factors affecting land conversion by using logistic regression and to identify farmer’s interest to maintain their agricultural land. Analysis of land use conversion in 2007-2013 indicates that mixed garden and built-up increased considerably. These rises consume other land use types, including plantations, rice fields, and dry land agriculture. Other land use types remained constant. Logistic regression analysis concluded that the change of agricultural fields to built-up was influenced by several factors, including soil type, spatial plan and distance to the capital city. While factors affecting the interests of farmers were net agricultural income, total production and landrent. The Markov Chain accuracy in predicting land use of 2013 in Subang regency as much as 96.4%. This method is fairly accurate in predicting the use of mangroves, ponds, and forests