Analisis Pengaruh Fluktuasi Exchange Rate terhadap Neraca Perdagangan di Kawasan ASEAN 5 Tahun 1998-2012

Abstract

Trade flows can be affected by exchange rate policies in order to maintain the competitiveness of exports and press imports to reduce the trade deficit. The purposes of this research are to analyze the relationship of short-term and long-term effect of the exchange rate towards the balance of trade in ASEAN 5 in the ASEAN 5 region and identify the factors that determine the balance of trade in the ASEAN 5 region in the short-term and long-term. This research uses the analysis period from the first quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2012 and analyzed by Vector Error Correction Model ( VECM ) and using E-views 6 software. Results from this research indicate that the relationship exchange rate fluctuations on the trade balance in the ASEAN 5 countries, each variable has a one-way relationship on the trade balance in the ASEAN 5 countries . Based on the IRF and VD analysis in the short-term and long-term in the ASEAN 5 countries seen most dominant variable in explaining changes in the trade balance is the trade balance itself.