Analisis Keberlanjutan Utang Luar Negeri Pemerintah dan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar Pada Empat Negara ASEAN

Abstract

The behavior of government external debt and exchange rate policies in ASEAN countries has recently became critical in determining future economy and avoiding debt crisis. As we know recently in ASEAN, there is sizeable motion of government external debt as an impact of the current account fluctuation. This study presents thorough empirical analysis of the sustainability of government external debt, together with exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables using time series econometric models based on government inter-temporal budget constraint. The empirical results point to the same outcome, in case for four ASEAN countries, those are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. The results show that government external debt is not sustainable and the exchange rate policies is sustainable. Furthermore, whole four countries has successfully transformed into managed floating exchange rate policies. This policies will make the potential negative spillover effects on the unsustainability of government external debt appears be insignificant.