Peramalan dan Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Penawaran Ekspor Indonesia ke Negara-Negara Anggota OKI

Abstract

Indonesia joined the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in 1969, but by 2012 the share of Indonesia's exports to OIC member countries reaches only 12% of its total exports. This paper aims to analyze the factors affecting Indonesia’s exports to OIC member countries and predicts its value until July 2015. Panel data with gravity model is used as analytical method while ARIMA method is utilized to predict the value of exports until July 2015. The results show that the real GDP, population and trade openness of importers countries, and the remoteness index between Indonesia and importers countries have significant effects on Indonesia’s exports to OIC member countries. It is predicted that the value Indonesia's exports to OIC member countries will continue to increase until July 2015 with average of growth rate of 0.58% per month.