Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Impor Gula di Indonesia

Abstract

High sugar imports lead to import dependence that affects the domestic sugar industry. The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of the sugar industry conditions in Indonesia, measure the sugar import dependency ratio and factors that affect the import of sugar in the long run. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and annual time series data from 1980 to 2012. The results of this study shows that sugar consumption increasing 3.82 percent per year while the production growth of ups and downs with 2.06 percent per year and imports continued to fluctuate with 6.86 percent per year during the period 1980-2012. Indonesian sugar import dependency ratio is still quite high with an average value of 26 percent per year. Based on VECM test, variables that significantly affect the sugar import are domestic production, domestic consumption, domestic sugar prices, international sugar prices, exchange rates and import tariffs on sugar. Meanwhile sugarcane planting area variable does not significantly affect the import of sugar in both the short and long term.