Pengaruh Perubahan Tutupan Lahan terhadap Perubahan Iklim Wilayah (Studi Kasus: Kota Jambi dan Kabupaten Kerinci)

Abstract

Regional climate change can be known from maximun and minimum temperature over the last few years. Jambi city is a growing area with more rapid development than Kerinci regency, and therefore contributes to changes in LULC. LULC analysis by using Landsat TM and ETM images in 1996 and 2006. Changes of LULC to building increase about 11% over the last 10 years. On the other hand, in Kerinci regency primary forest decreases by 4%, farm decreases by and 1%, and mix plantation decreases by 5%. Based on Mann Kendall Test maximum temperature increase significantly within 30 years with rate 0.048oC/year in Jambi city and 0.037oC/year in Kerinci regency, but there was no trend in minimum temperature in Jambi city. There is a decrease in minimum temperature in kerinci regency. Model projections show an increase in maximum and minimum temperature trends for the short-term and long-term future in Jambi city and Kerinci regency. However the model were not good enough to describe condition of study area, with R2 values below 50% and small RMSE.