Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Avian Influenza on Poultry Sector IV in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province

Abstract

Avian influenza (AI) disease on poultry has occurred in Indonesia for 9 years (2003-2012) and potentially became a pandemic for human. DIY province was vulnerable in term of AI virus spreads, in fact it had ever became the highest AI cases on poultry in Indonesia. The objectives of this research are to located the center on AI cases, spatial correlation and AI cases pattern identification, identifying the relationship between poultry population and the number of AI cases, locate areas that become hotspot and figure out AI cases temporal pattern. Data used in this research is a secondary data from Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response (PDSR) and Dinas Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan Provinsi DIY for number of AI cases, GPS coordinate and poultry population of each sub-district in DIY province in 2009-2012. Mean spatial, moran scatterplot, Chi-Square test, and ARIMA are used for data analysis. Result from this research is expected to provide information regarding AI disease to the central government, regional government, and public society as an advice for deciding the prevention policy and AI cases treatment in DIY province. Areas that become the center of AI cases generally moved every year at the district or provincial level to the nearby area. Areas that become center of AI cases more than once are Bantul district. Gunung Kidul district only once became the center of AI cases. Area that became the center of AI cases needs to be aware as a source of AI disease infection. AI cases in DIY province generally in clustered pattern. Clustered pattern was occurred in 2010, 2011 and four year analysis. Random pattern found in 2009 and 2012. There was a positive or negative of spatial correlation of AI cases in DIY province. Areas that became hotspot more than once and potentially became center of AI disease spread are Pakem sub-district, Samigaluh sub-district, Kalasan sub-district, Umbulharjo sub-district, Pandak sub-district, Patuk sub-district, Sentolo sub-district, Tempel sub-district, Ngaglik sub-district, Lendah sub-district, Jetis sub-district, Sanden sub-district and Sewon sub-district. Areas that became coldspot more than once and potentially vulnerable to AI disease are Girimulyo sub-district, Lendah sub-district, Moyudan sub-district, Prambanan sub-district, Turi sub-district, Gedangsari sub-district, Purwosari sub-district, Banguntapan sub-district, Pajangan sub-district, Imogiri sub-district and Bambanglipuro sub-district Chi-Square analysis show the correlation between poultry population and number of AI cases in DIY province in 2009-2012. This mean that AI cases DIY province was affected by number of poultry population. Poultry population control can affected the AI cases. ARIMA (0,2,1) model was used to identify AI cases temporal pattern in 2009-2012. Temporal pattern shows the increasing trend of AI cases in January-March. Timing of AI cases coincided with the rainy season.