Dampak kebijakan fiskal dan sektor hulu migas terhadap perekonomian Provinsi Riau

Abstract

Riau economy depends on oil-gas sector, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, anticipating negative impacts of declining crude oil reserve is very essential to conduct, because it will affect on decreasing oil production, in which eventually reduces oil-gas sector contribution in the economy. The purpose of this study is to construct a model of Oil-Gas and Riau economy, that use to predict the impact of the crude oil reserves declining, and the impact of fiscal and upstream oil-gas sector policy towards Riau province economy situation in year 2012 up to 2035. The econometric model is built using simultaneous equations system, consisted of 22 structural equations and 13 identity equations. Structural equations is estimated with 2SLS and OLS using Econometric Views (eviews) software version 5.0. Data used are yearly data series from 1980 to 2006. Simulation and forecasting results indicate that economic output from oil-gas sector declines sharply corresponding to crude oil production. Meanwhile, outputs from agricultural and and other sectors increase relatively small. Output decrease from oil-gas sector is unable to be covered by economic increase from other non oil-gas sectors, resulting in average of 1.23% decline per year on total economic output following declining oil production trend. Other impact is increasing unemployment rate and poverty. In order to reduce negative impacts, government intervention is required. Five scenarios on government policies have been made in this study, consisted of two policy scenarios regarding crude oil price formulation, policy to increase cash call, policy to decrease interest rate, and policy to increase local government development expenditure. Research shows that the fourth policy, which is reducing interest rate, is the most effective policy scenario compared to four other policies. However, that policy scenario seems unable to restore Riau province economic peak that happens in 2017.