The impact of avian influenza on economy: environmental, social and national economy perspective

Abstract

There are three environmental factors which are considered as a medium of avian virus transmission: (1) physical environment, (2) biological environment and (3) the social environment or human behavior (trader or farm owner). Those are the main medium of transmission of avian flu disease of both humans and among poultries. Using logistic regression model this primary data are analized. The samples from three area in Tangerang are selected for poultry owners and traders. The result of the research explains that some aspects of environment are significant medium which are: characteristic of farmers: age, formal education and the purpose of poultry farming; physical environments are: distance between the cages, sewerage of wastewater and the cleanlines of the yard; biological environment are: the existance of other animal, manure; social environment are: reporting, the frequency of receiving information and disinfectant in the gate. For traders, the significant medium of environmental aspects are: characteristic of traders: age, formal education and the purpose of poultry trading; physical environment: market condition, the cleanlines of the floor, the cleanlines of the cage and the cleanlines of poultry plate; biological environment: the frequency of new poultry, other animal, source of food and food ingredients; social environment: infected poultry contact, vaccination, the frequency of receiving information and reporting. The negative impact of the outbreak of bird flu on economic sectors in the sectoral and macro aspect is analized using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Base on SNSE 2008 data and some disagregation data sectors, two simulations are conducted. The result of the simulation studies indicate that the decrease in the productivity of poultry meat sector (traditional and medium-large) and egg sector impacts on the micro and macro aspects of the economy. On the micro level in domestic market there are decresed production and increased prices in the poultry sector, eggs, other farms, restaurants and services. While in the foreign market there are decresed exports as well as imports. Similarly, there is a decline in consumption by the entire group of household due to a decline in the income by all groups of households and firms. Government revenue also decline due to a decrease in taxes from households and firms. At the macro level there are a decline in GDP and a decline in the investment. The second simulation illustrate the increase of production and the impact of government policy on the micro aspects and the overall economy. On the micro level in domestic market there are increased production and decreased prices in the sector of poultry, eggs, other farms, restaurants and services. While in foreign market there are increased exports and decreased imports in almost all sectors. Similarly, there are an increase in consumption by the entire group of households due to an increse in the income by all groups of households and firms. Government revenue also increased due to an increse in taxes from household and firms.