Pengembangan Model Indeks Monsun (Monsoon) Indonesia (IMI) Berbasis Hasil Analisis Data WPR (Wind Profile Radar)

Abstract

There are three regions as a heat source to drive a circulation in the equatorial namely South America, Africa, and Indonesian. Indonesian in a geographyc is a unique country. Because in the cross two continental (Asia continental and Australian continental) and two ocean (Hindian ocean and Pacific ocean). Until Indonesian climate is dominated by Monsoon to have one year of cycle. Development of model in one of purpose to easier in predicted climate in the future is seldom done. So throught the research are model can be used Monsoon prediction especially in Indonesia. This research to used a WPR in three city, Pontianak, Manado, and Biak with supporting data is global climate that ISMI (Indian Summer Monsoon Index), WNPMI (Western North Pacific Monsoon Index), and AUSMI (Australian Monsoon Index). The results of this research are the linkage between the WPR with global climate data, so AUSMI data to selected which oscillate around 12 months. The powerfull of correlation in the fist period (November 1, 2007 – January 30, 2008) is AUSMI in Pontianak and Biak with the correltion 0.486 and 0.599. whereas second period (Desember 7, 2008 – March 7, 2009) AUSMI dominant in Pontianak with correlation value 0.21 and ISMI dominant in Biak with correlation value 0.419. Furthermore with bifilar linier regression analysis to made model for the period with model like U (850) = a (ISMI) + b (WNPMI) + c (AUSMI) + error.