Model Dynamic of Forest and Land Use Change and Carbon Trade Scenario in Jambi.

Abstract

The rate of deforestation and forest degradation in the sector of LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) continues to increase along with the increase in land and forest products. In 2009, the release of forest area in Jambi province reached 77,216 hectares, land use 344,305 hectares, and forest area exchange 80,861 hectares. The importance of non-forestry sector development has resulted in the decrease in forested areas (deforestation) and the cover of forested areas (forest degradation). The rate of deforestation in Jambi reached 165,665 hectares, in which 39.75% occurred in West Tanjung Jabung Regency. The use of forest area for non-forestry sector development is set out in the national development policy. The policy changes bring about the changes in the interaction of forest stakeholders to the forest areas. To reduce the rates of deforestation and forest degradation, the government has used REDD + scheme. One scenario in REDD+ scheme is with a moratorium on the use of forest areas. Projected deforestation and forest degradation can be done through dynamic system when a moratorium on forest area utilization is conducted on the intensity of 30%, 50% and 70% out of the forest area use permit in BAU. The implementation of a moratorium can decrease deforestation and degradation about 9% -43%. Implementation of a moratorium of forest area use permit in REDD+ scheme does not provide a very large income. The income of REDD + is only about 0.76 to 1.35 billion USD in every 5-year contract, much lower compared to BAU income of Jambi which reaches USD 678,912 per year and it may threaten 1,290,854 employment opportunities for people

Emisi gas rumah kaca sejak tahun 1970 hingga tahun 2004, terus meningkat sampai 70% dan diantaranya terjadi peningkatan sebanyak 24% selama periode tahun 1990 hingga 2004. Menurut FAO (2010), cadangan karbon pada biomasa hutan Indonesia tahun 1990 sebesar 16.335 juta ton, tahun 2000 sebesar 15.182 juta ton, tahun 2005 sebesar 14.299 juta ton, tahun 2010 sebesar 13.017 juta ton. Cadangan karbon biomasa hutan Indonesia per hektar 2010 mencapai 138 juta ton/hektar. Deforestasi hutan Indonesia berdampak pada penurunan PDB (Product Domestic Bruto) kehutanan terhadap PDB Indonesia. Tahun 1997 proporsi PDB Kehutanan terhadap PDB Indonesia mencapai 1.56% namun di tahun 2000 menurun menjadi 1,18%. Tahun 2008 mencapai 0,81% (Kemenhut 2009) dan di triwulan II tahun 2009 hanya menyumbang 0,85% atau Rp. 4.433,3 Milyar (Kemenhut 2010). Penurunan potensi dan perubahan fungsi penggunaan kawasan hutan yang terjadi terus menerus disebabkan oleh perbedaan kepentingan stakeholder terhadap kawasan hutan dan mempengaruhi institusi yang mengatur tentang pemanfaatan dan penggunaan kawasan hutan. Hubungan ini membentuk suatu sistem yang utuh dan saling mempengaruhi.