Analisis Hubungan Intensitas Energi dan Pendapatan per Kapita: Studi Komparatif di Sepuluh Negara Asia Pasifik

Abstract

Isu ketahanan energi bagi kelangsungan hidup manusia dan pembangunan yang berkelanjutan telah menjadi isu global. Dinamika perekonomian dunia yang terus melaju pesat telah menyedot ban yak penggunaan energi untuk menopang aktivitas perekonomian di berbagai negara. Implikasinya, permintaan energi oleh negara-negara di dunia semakin meningkat. Di sisi lain, sumber energi konvensional berbasis fosil semakin terbatas keberadaannya, padahal sumber energi ini merupakan sumber energi utama yang digunakan hampir di' semua negara di dunia. Sementara itu, harga energi dunia, terutama yang berbasis fosil terus bergejolak dan cenderung menunjukkan peningkatan yang cukup signifikan dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Gejolak harga energi dunia ini pada gilirannya berimbas pada aktivitas perekonomian hampir di semua negara di dunia tak tcrkccuali negara-negara Asia Pasifik yang dikaji dalam penelitian ini.

Energy availability and consumption play an important and strategic role in generating economic growth. One common measurement used in analyzing energy-GOP relationship is energy intensity, which is the amourit of energy required to produce a unit of income (GDP). This research examines relationship between energy intensity and income per capita for ten Asia Pacific countries with various economic performances over the period of 1980-2005. Using static and dynamic panel data models, energy consumption and energy intensity arc expressed as quadratic logarithmic function of income per capita, squared income per capita, and energy price. As a result, the long run coefficient of income per capita is greater than one and the long run coefficient of squared income per capita is negative. It describes that energy intensity has quadratic relationship with income per capita, and indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. This research also analyzes responses of energy consumption and energy intensity to the change of energy price and income per capita in both the short run and long run. The price elasticity is negative and very inelastic; it means the response of energy consumption with respect to the change in energy price is relatively low. However, the estimation results are also show that the income elasticity is positive but tends to decrease over time. Here, the estimated value of income elasticity varies across countries where the high income countries have lower elasticities than those of the middle-low income countries.