Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/55318
Title: Rancangbangun sistem intelijen untuk strategi pengembangan agroindustri tapioka dengan pendekatan teori Chaos
Design of intelligence system for tapioca agroindustry development strategy with Chaos theory approach
Authors: Eriyatno
Arkenian, Yandia
Nasution, muslimin
Astuti, Pudji
Keywords: Tapioca Agroindustry
expert management system
crisis management
chaos theory
Artificial Neural Network
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: IPB (Bogor Agricultural University)
Abstract: Perubahan teknologi industri hilir dan perkembangan perdagangan bebas telah membawa pengaruh besar terhadap daya saing industri tapioka rakyat. Krisis agroindustri tapioka yang ditandai dengan penurunan kemampuan industri dalam menjalankan fungsi produksi dan bisnisnya menjadi ancaman yang bisa terjadi setiap saat. Chaos dapat terjadi kapanpun dan dimanapun, oleh karena itu diperlukan sistem deteksi dini yang mampu mendeteksi lebih awal kondisi chaos dan melakukan tindakan pemulihan krisis. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menghasilkan model sistem manajemen ahli yang mencakup sistem deteksi dini keadaan chaos dan sistem manajemen kontrol. Model sistem manajemen ahli ini dapat digunakan oleh para pengambil keputusan dalam proses penentuan kebijakan dalam rangka pemulihan dan pencegahan krisis dampak chaos pada agroindustri tapioka. Keluaran (output) dari penelitian ini adalah perangkat lunak komputer yang berfungsi sebagai Sistem Manajemen Ahli yang dapat dimanfaatkan oleh pemangku kepentingan dalam pengembangan agroindustri tapioka. Sumber-sumber pemicu krisis pada agroindustri tapioka diidentifikasi berdasarkan pengaruhnya terhadap kelangsungan industri tapioka. Hasil identifikasi sumber pemicu krisis agroindustri tapioka adalah fluktuasi dan ketidak pastian harga tapioka halus serta fluktuasi pasokan tapioka kasar sebagai bahan baku tapioka halus. Identifikasi sumber turbulensi dilakukan untuk menentukan variabel yang dominan berpengaruh terhadap harga tapioka halus dan pasokan tapioka kasar. Kuisioner perbandingan berpasangan Fuzzy digunakan untuk mengakuisisi preferensi pakar dengan penilaian kualitatif (linguistik). Proses pembobotan dilakukan dengan konsep fuzzy Analitik Hierarchi Proses. Variabel yang dominan mempengaruhi harga tapioka halus adalah banyaknya stock tapioka di pasar yang berasal dari produksi industri besar dan tapioka impor, harga tapioka kasar dan biaya produksi tapioka halus. Harga tapioka kasar ditentukan sesuai dengan kualitas tapioka kasar. Variabel yang dominan berpengaruh terhadap pasokan tapioka kasar adalah harga ubi kayu dan jumlah produksi ubi kayu.
Chaos could occur anytime in agriculture sector, and that some occurences will be predictable and some will not, so it needs early warning system that could detect early chaotic conditions and take action for crisis recovery. Tapioca agro-industry turbulence condition was characterized by decreasing ability of the industry in production and business functions. Tapioca price and material supply was identified as key crisis factors in tapioca small scale agroindustry. This research was aimed to design early warning system for tapioca agroindustry. The expert management system was established as controlling tools through formulating policies for managing crisis due to chaotic situation. The output of this research was computer program, called “Simak-Chaotica” which consists of submodels: 1) the chaos existence test, 2) predictions in chaos key factor, 3) crisis signal analysis, and 4) crisis control policy Chaotic investigation with chaos theory approach for tapioca price and raw material supply identified by positive Lyapunov exponent and fractal dimension. Fractal dimension could determine another chaos component, embedding dimension to be considered as information about how many time lags were involed in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting. In the case study Lyapunov exponent value for the price of tapioca and raw material supply, respectively, were 0.1119 bits / week and 0.15656 bits / week. These properties indicate that the tapioca price and raw material supplies could not be predicted in the long term. Ttapioca price could be predicted within a period of 1 / 0, 1119 = 8.89728 approximately in 9 weeks, and the raw material supply in a period of 1 / 0, 15 656 = 6.34942 approximately in 6 weeks. Fractal dimension for the tapioca price was 1.05075 and 1.59616 for the raw material supply. Crisis signal analysis submodel was set up with threshold analysis, and supplemented with control management procedure. When tapioca price or raw material supply was evaluated at crisis level, then status alert would be presented as “Siaga”, “Waspada”, or “Bahaya”. Strategy and policy alternatives were formulated by Issue Management Technology (IMT) and OWA. Rule base was used to select policy alternatives for chaotic management. Agroindustry will cooperative body will ensure the long term cassava business resistance to the crisis. It was community based institution that relies on social cohesion and collective efficiency.
URI: http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/55318
Appears in Collections:DT - Agriculture

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Lampiran.pdf
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Daftar Pustaka.pdf
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BAB VII Kesimpulan dan Saran.pdf
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BAB V Sistem Manajemen Ahli.pdf
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