Dampak kebijakan ekonomi dan pembahan faktor ekstemal terhadap kinejja pasar jagung dan produk turunannya di Indonesia

Abstract

One of agricultural commodities which has a strategic position to Indonesian people is com. To Indonesian people, com is the second source of carbohydrate after rice. In addition, com is the main ingredient for feed industry as well as food industry. Com has produced derived products, covering a wide spectrum, in which its demand is continuously increasing. In order to study the behavior of com and its derived products market, this research was conducted with four objectives, that is; (\) to analyze com and derived products market performance in Indonesia; (2) to analyze the impact of the economic policy and external changes on com and derived products market performance; and (3) to analyze the impact of economic policy and external changes on producers and consumers surplus. This research was done by utilizing time series data from the period of 1980 to 200 I. The model cousisted of 46 structural equations and 10 identity equations. The data were analyzed by an econometric approach. Parameter estimation was done by 2SLS (Two stage least squares) method. The results revealed that the econometric model of Com and Derived Products Market in Indonesia that was constructed in this research could explain well the behavior of com market, feed market, egg market, and chicken market. Some policy alternatives and external changes could be simulated comprehensively. In the periods of 2007·2010, the food security credit policy (KKP), fertilizer subsidies, policy combination aIUong com self-sufficient policy, KKP, fertilizer subsidies, and com intensification policies wil1 increase corn, feed, chicken and egg production. Meanwhile, rupiahs exchange rate (against USD) policy based on National Budget ofthe year 200T(IDR 9 300/uSD) will decrease corn, feed, chicken, and egg production. Com liberalization trade regime and import tariff policy will increase com production, but at the same time this will decrease the production of feed, chicken and egg, and accordingly the price of feed, chicken and egg will increase. The combination policies (food-sufficient plus and com intensification policy) have more positive impact than the single policy. In the future (2007-20\0) only com trade liberalization policy will decrease producers and consumers' surplus, while other policies will increase producers and consumers' surplus. The highest impact of the increase of producers and consumers' surplus especially occurs due to com self-sufficient plus policy and com intensification policy. All the policies, except rupiahs exchange rates (in APBN 2007) were proved to be potential to save foreign exchange reserves. The highest foreign exchange reserves will occur on the policy of com self-sufficient due to the dramatic decrease of com importation.

Salah satu komoditas pertanian yang mempunyai posisi cukup strategis dalam kehidupan masyarakat Indonesia adalah komoditas jagung. Bagi masyarakat Indonesia, jagung mempakan sumber karbohidrat kedua setelah beras, bahan baku utama industri pakan ternak, bahan baku industri pangan, yang kebutuhannya setiap tahun tems meningkat, dan komoditas jagung menghasilkan produk tumnan yang eukup luas spektrumnya. Dalam rangka mengkaji perilaku pasar jagung dan produk tumnannya, penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan: (l) menganalisis keragaan pasar jagung dan produk turunannya, (2) menganalisis dampak kebijakan ekonomi dan pembahan faktor eksternal terhadap kineJja pasar jagulIg dan produk tumnannya, dan (3) menganalisis dampak kebijakall ekonomi dan perubahan faktor eksternal terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat pelaku pasar jagung dan produk tumnannya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series tahun 1980-2001 dan dianalisis melalui pendekatan ekonometrika. Model terdiri dari 46 persamaan struktural dan 10 persarnaan identitas. Pendugaan parameter dilakukan dengan metoda 2SLS (Two stage least squares).