Dampak pengembangan biodiesel terhadap industri turunan kelapa sawit nasional

Abstract

The Decreasing petroleum products from time to time will embrace scarcity of petroleum oil for purposes of economy in various sectors of its dedicated transport, industry and electricity sector. To overcome this issue, it is necessary to find an alternative as a substitute for feedstock materials of oil earthbased exploration with the raw material of plant or vegetable based. In this study it is selected palm oil as alternative raw materials, including those in which Indonesia's largest producer in the world. In general, the purpose of research is to analyze the impact of the development of biodiesel from palm oil to palm oil derivative products based on food. To achieve this goal, the econometric approach is used to build models of systems of simultaneous equations consisting of 20 structural equations and an identity equation. These models used 2SLS method. Scenario 1 is made of 20 percent biodiesel development which resulted in the dominant variable is the price of fresh fruit bunches increases 4.72 percent, consumption increases 24.99 percent palm oil, diesel oil imports fell down 5.83 percent, cooking oil demand increases 8.43 percent and rising demand for margarine 10.36 percent. Scenario 2 is the development of biodiesel and 20 percent export tax on palm oil increase 10 percent provides positive effect on the price of fresh fruit bunches 5.09 percent and 25.81 percent consumption of palm oil, diesel oil imports decline in 5.85 per cent and rising demand for palm cooking oil and margarine amounting to 8.41 and 9.46 percent. Scenario 3 is the development of 20 percent biodiesel and 10 percent of world oil prices. The response to rising prices of fresh fruit bunches 6.45 percent, 11.40 percent palm oil consumption, diesel oil imports fell 2.19 percent and cooking palm oil production increase 8.74 percent and 7.64 percent rising demand for margarine. Scenario 4 is the development of 20 percent biodiesel and 10 percent exchange rate. The response of prices of fresh fruit bunches increase 6.01 percent, 11.01 percent of palm oil consumption, imports fall 5.90 percent oil diesel and cooking palm oil demand rises 8.35 percent and demand for margarine increases 9.81 percent.

Berkurangnya hasil minyak bumi dari waktu ke waktu akan terjadinya kelangkaan keperluan bahan bakar minyak bagi roda perekonomian di berbagai sektor khusus nya sektor transportasi, industri dan kelistrikan. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut diperlukan mencari alternatif sebagai bahan penganti bahan baku miyak bumi yang berbasis eksplorasi dengan bahan baku yang berbasis tanaman atau nabati. Dalam penelitian ini dipilih kelapa sawit sebagai bahan baku alternatif tersebut dimana Indonesia termasuk penghasil terbesar di dunia. Secara umum tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menganalisis dampak pengembangan biodiesel dari kelapa sawit terhadap produk turunan kelapa sawit yang berbasis pangan. Untuk mencapai tujuan ini, digunakan pendekatan ekonometrika dengan membangun model sistem persamaan simultan yang terdiri dari 20 persamaan struktural dan 1 persamaan identitas. Model ini menggunakan metode 2SLS. Hasil pendugaan parameter model digunakan untuk melakukan simulasi skenario-skenario kebijakan yang relevan. Skenario 1 yaitu dilakukan pengembangan biodiesel 20 persen berakibat pada peubah dominan yaitu kenaikan harga tandan buah segar 4.72 persen, konsumsi minyak sawit naik 24.99 persen, impor minyak diesel turun 5.83 persen, permintaan minyak goreng sawit naik 8.43 persen dan permintaan margarin naik 10.36 persen.