Dampak ekonomi pariwisata internasional pada perekonomian Indonesia: suatu pendekatan ekonometrika dan analisis input-output

Abstract

Tourism has played an important role in the Indonesian economy especially inbound tourists which give foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, outbound tourists bring dollars outside Indonesia. It will have an impact on tourism balance which is still surplus in the case of Indonesia. In this study found that the surplus of tourism balance tends to decrease where the increase of outbound tourists and their expenditure was faster than the increase of inbound tourist and their expenditure. By using econometric models, this study will also identify the variables which influence inbound and outbound tourists both the number of arrival/departure and their average expenditure per visit. GDP was the most influenced variable beside Indonesian tourism price and neighbour countries’ tourism price as competitors of Indonesian tourism. Simulation will be applied to know the impact of economic growth and monetary policy on the flow of foreign exchange through international tourism. The results of this simulation will be used to know the economic impact of inbound tourists such as tourism balance, added value, indirect tax, and wages & salaries as well as employment by using Input-Output Model. It shows that economic growth of tourists’ country of origin will give a higher impact to the Indonesian economy compared to the both exchange rate and monetary policy.

Pariwisata telah berperan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia khususnya karena wisatawan mancanegara yang membawa devisa dari luar negeri. Di sisi lain penduduk Indonesia yang pergi ke luar negeri juga membelanjakan uangnya di luar negeri. Ini akan mempengaruhi neraca pariwisata yang selama ini masih surplus. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa surplus neraca pariwisata cenderung menurun di mana peningkatan jumlah penduduk yang pergi ke luar negeri beserta pengeluarannya lebih cepat jika dibandingkan dengan peningkatan jumlah wisman yang masuk ke Indonesia beserta uang yang mereka belanjakan. Dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika penelitian ini juga mengidentifikasi variable-variabel yang mempengaruhi jumlah wisman datang ke Indonesia maupun penduduk yang pergi ke luar negeri beserta uang yang mereka belanjakan. Pendapatan Domestik Bruto (PDB) adalah salah satu variabel penting yang mempengaruhi pariwisata internasional di Indonesia selain harga pariwisata Indonesia maupun harga pariwisata negara tetangga sebagai pesaing Indonesia.