Analisis konsumsi dan penyediaan energi dalam perekonomian indonesia

Abstract

The general objective of this study develop a model of energy consumption by users and the energy supply by energy type in the Indonesian economy. The model used is a simultaneous equation model with two stage least square method. The design of this model uses the assumption that along with economic progress the need for energy has increased so that the necessary supply of energy is greater, and vice versa. The main findings of this study are: First, world oil prices, domestic energy prices, GDP, and exchange rates are the main factors that influence the consumption and supply of energy in Indonesia. Second, the increase in world oil prices and declining goverment expenditure of oil subsidies decrease consumption and supply of energy in Indonesia. The apresiation of the IDR to US Dollar increase consumption and supply of energy in Indonesia. And third, the results of forecasting analysis show overall energy consumption by all sectors tend to increase, except for biomass consumption by the industrial and total of biomass consumption. In addtion, supply of energy tends to increase with smaller rate the increasing of energy consumption. In the short term, it should be an effort to increase energy utilization efficiency and productivity through conversion using fuel oil by gas and the reduction of subsidies oil in energy prices gradually, accompanied by efforts to increase economic growth, among others, by applying a low interest rate policy and maintain stable exchange rates. In the medium term, some efforts are required to increase investment from the aspect of production, processing, and distribution of fossil energy, and effort-based energy conversion using fuel oil by industry sector into other energy types. Along with that, efforts to increase the number and capacity of oil refineries, gas and electricity generation are required to be done to reduce the level of dependence on the final energy that comes from imports. In the long term, the implemention of green energy development strategy, which shifts the energy use sourced from unrenewable resources to energy use that are renewable resources, such as utilization of water energy, wind, biomass, biodiesel, biogas and other sources of sustainable energy.

Data fakta menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia diiringi dengan peningkatan konsumsi energi dan sebaliknya. Pada periode 1993-2008, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) sektor industri, sektor transportasi, sektor pertanian, dan sektor lainnya cenderung mengalami peningkatan. Sejalan dengan peningkatan PDB, konsumsi energi empat sektor tersebut juga mengalami peningkatan. Sebaliknya peningkatan konsumsi energi berbagai sektor tersebut juga dapat meningkatkan PDB. Masalah utama yang dihadapi adalah ketergantungan konsumsi energi terhadap energi fosil yang bersifat unrenewable resources, sementara konsumsi energi yang relatif boros mempercepat habisnya cadangan energi fosil yang tersedia. Dalam memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi energi saat ini, khususnya kebutuhan terhadap bahan bakar minyak (BBM), Indonesia telah melakukan impor. Oleh karenanya sangat penting bagi Indonesia untuk memperhatikan ketersediaan energi yang cukup dan berkesinambungan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi energi untuk dapat melaksanakan aktivitas ekonomi berbagai sektor secara optimal. Dengan kata lain diperlukan suatu kondisi yang senantiasa memperhatikan keseimbagan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketersediaan energi sebagai salah satu prasyarat untuk mewujudkan pembangunan ekonomi yang lebih maju. Oleh karena itu penelitian tentang konsumsi dan penyediaan energi di Indonesia sangat penting dan menarik untuk dilakukan.