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http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/48231
Title: | Penggunaan model ARIMA dalam peramalan suhu udara di sekitar Palangkaraya |
Authors: | Adrianto, Hari Agung Putra, Erianto Indra Ramdani, Ahmad Luky |
Keywords: | Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) ARIMA forest fires air temperature time series fuel |
Issue Date: | 2011 |
Publisher: | IPB (Bogor Agricultural University) |
Abstract: | Recent forest and land wildfires in Indonesia not only result in ecosystem loss but also economic loss and health and pollution effect. The other hand, fire weather is believed to be an important aspects for fire occurrences. Fire weather directly affects fuel temperature, accelerating its easiness to burn. Thus, it is important to clarify the effects of air temperature to forest fire incidence. A statistical analysis and forecasting for air temperature is needed to predict the air temperature condition in the future. Thisstudyused AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA) model for air temperature forecasting in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan. Palangkaraya has become the fire dense areas due to several high fire occurrences in recent years. The result showedthat theAR(5) model could be usedfor daily airtemperaturemodeling foreight forecasting days with aMAPEvalue of3.11%. ARIMA(0,1,1) could be usedfor weekly airtemperatureforecastingwith aMAPEvalue of2.1%. Therefore these models could be used for air temperatureforecasting, althoughthey produced relativelyconstantvalueof temperature forecastingon27oCand28oC. For the monthly temperature, model MA (1) could be used with a MAPE value of 2.08%. Forecasting for the next 6 months also tend to resulta constant temperature at 26.8 oC, but MA (1) has lowest MAPE value, indicating that MA(1) is the best model for predicting the air temperature of Palangkaraya in the future. |
URI: | http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/48231 |
Appears in Collections: | UT - Computer Science |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Abstract_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | Abstract | 292.18 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
BAB I Pendahuluan_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | BAB I | 358.93 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
BAB II Tinjauan Pustaka_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | BAB II | 890.1 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
BAB III Metode Penelitian_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | BAB III | 851.18 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
BAB IV Hasil dan Pembahasan_G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | BAB IV | 917.51 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
BAB V Simpulan_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | BAB V | 499.55 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Cover_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | Cover | 308.56 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Daftar Pustaka_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | Daftar Pustaka | 341.3 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | Full Text | 1.76 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Lampiran_ G11alr.pdf Restricted Access | Lampiran | 720.49 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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