Analisis hubungan faktor iklim dengan tingkat serangan wereng batang cokelat (Nilaparvata lugens Stal.) sebagai landasan prediksi serangan: studi kasus pada 3 Kabupaten di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

Abstract

Pests are organisms that can cause damage to plants and can adversely affect the economy. Rice is the most important staple food in Indonesia. One of destructive pest of rice plants which can reduce the production is brown planthopper (Wereng Batang Coklat – WBC). One of the triggers widespread increase in attacks of WBC is the climatic factor. Climatic factors can influence the level of attacks of the pest. Therefore, the influence of climate on broad attack WBC is important to be analyzed. This study aims to analyze the relationship between climatic factors with a broad attack WBC as a basis for prediction of attack. The areas of studies covered 3 district of Central Java Province,e.g., Cilacap, Pekalongan, and Tegal. The method used for analysis linear regression method for rainfall, quadratic regression to other climatic factors, and multiple linear regression to all the climatic factors that possible influence. Analysis of climatic factors with broad WBC relationships attacks carried out at different time delay (lag time) those are without lag, lag 1 and lag 2. The highest determinate coefficient results between regions of WBC attacks and climatic factors is 20.2%. These results obtained when the analysis is done in lag 1 with the equation of LS (Area Of Attack) = - 38 + 90.2 Tavg - 36.0 Tmax - 61.6 Tmin - 0146 R + 3.11 RH. Climatic factor is one of the factors that influence the broad attack of WBC, there are several other factors that need to be included in the analysis to improve results and get a better prediction.