The design of investment decision support system on palm oil biodiesel industry using dynamic system models

Abstract

The gap between oil compsumption and production in the last few years has put indonesia into the oil net importer country. The increased of world oil’s price up to $60 US per barrel has increased the goverment subsidies more than 100 trillions rupiah in 2005. In order to anticipate the scarcity of oil in the future, the government has to search other energy resources especially renewable energy such as palm biodiesel that can be used as an alternative fuel of petroleum diesel and also known as ecolabelling product. In the frame work to support the development of palm biodiesel investment in Indonesia, this research is aimed to formulate the decision support system (dss) for palm biodiesel investment using dynamic models. The system consist of 5 submodels ie : The assesment of (1) Raw material resources, (2) production technology, (3) financial planning, (4) marketing, (5) environmental impact assesment. The correlation and interaction between submodel are based on logical function and theoritical framework by using system dynamic approach.

Pertumbuhan konsumsi bahan bakar minyak yang terus meningkat dengan produksi relatif tetap, telah menempatkan Indonesia saat ini sebagai salah satu negara pengimpor bahan bakar minyak. Kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang mencapai 60 USD per barel telah memperbesar subsidi BBM menjadi lebih dari 100 triliun pada tahun 2005 berjalan. Untuk mengantisipasi kelangkaan BBM di masa mendatang perlu dikaji potensi sumber enerji lain terutama enerji yang dapat diperbaharui, antara lain yang berpotensi untuk dikembangkan sebagai pengganti BBM solar adalah Biodisel Kelapa Sawit (BDS) yang bersifat ramah lingkungan.