Aplikasi Metode Simulasi Monte Carlo untuk Menduga Debit Aliran Sungai

Abstract

Discharge of a stream flow is one process in hydrologic cycle. Fluctuation of discharge - directly or indirectly - is more affected by rainfall intensity. Because rainfall intensity is dependent on weather (climate), discharge will be fluctuated dependent on change of weather (climate). In a long period (for example 10 years), data of discharge will become a data series. A data series of discharge is a stochastic data. There are two aspects in a data series, i.e. probability aspect and time aspects. A data series can be simulated with based on stochastic concept. One of the methods that can be used is Monte Carlo Simulation Method. Furthermore, in this paper will be exposed the resuff of accurateness of Monte Catlo Simulation Method to simulate data series of discharge. Mean weekly data series of discharge of Cikapundung stream flow (Cigulung-Cikapundung sub watershed in North Bandung - West Java), were used. Accurateness of the method was evaluated by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The result is that Monte Carlo Simulation Method can be used accurately to simulate data series of discharge, with MAPE 19.36 percent (< 25 percennt)