Dynamic Model for Settlement Area Management In the Upper Stream of Ciliwung Watershed, Bogor District - Indonesia

Abstract

Ciliwung watershed is one cjf the most critical watersheds in West Java Province. The upper stream of Ciliwung watershed lie: in the Rogor District, which is an important function for the surroimding areas. The upper stream of Ciliwung has regulated or managed water resources supply, whether there is flooding or drought in the middle and the down stream. Ecosysteln degradation in the upper stream of Ciliwung watershed was caused by land use change from the forest and agricultural land to settlement utilization. Holistic and effective management of settlement areas is needed in order to be iil accordance settlement growtll with the carrying capacity of watershed. l'he objective of the research was to design a mode1 for managing the settlement areas. The research method used the dynamic system approach with software powers in 25d, for a 20 years simulation. The result showed archetype of the model is Limit to Growth lnodil and coordination as the leverage factor for managing settlement area. Simutation with increasing coordination, combined with increasing consistency for reguktion, people participation and decreasing population growth rate would increased performance of the upper stream of Ciliwung watershed.