Strategi Quantitative Easing dan New Trinity Moneter di Indonesia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted Bank Indonesia to activate Quantitative Easing (QE) as a non-conventional policy tool when the effectiveness of interest rate instruments weakened. Unlike conventional policy, QE operates through large-scale purchases of government securities (SUN) to stabilize financial markets, support real-sector recovery, and reinforce fiscal sustainability. This study evaluates the impact of QE on Indonesia’s macro-financial stability within the transition from the Impossible Trinity toward the New Monetary Trinity, which emphasizes price stability, financial system stability, and fiscal sustainability. Using quarterly data from 2007–2023, the analysis applies ARDL, TVECM, BVECM, and TVP-VECM to capture linear, nonlinear, and time-varying dynamics. Results show that QE transmission in Indonesia is no longer dominated by the interest rate channel but instead operates through SUN, the real effective exchange rate (REER), and the stock market (IHSG). TVECM highlights the Error Correction Term (ECT) as a stabilizing mechanism during crisis regimes, while BVECM and TVP-VECM confirm consistent long-run adjustments and evolving QE effectiveness over time. The findings underscore the limitations of the Taylor Rule, Phillips Curve, and Mundell–Fleming framework in emerging markets facing the Zero Lower Bound and structural constraints. QE is shown to strengthen the pillars of the New Monetary Trinity by enhancing market stability and complementing monetary–fiscal coordination. Policy implications emphasize the need for an adaptive policy-mix: targeted SUN purchases and liquidity backstops during crises, gradual QE unwinding in normal conditions, and macroprudential activation to mitigate financial cycles. Overall, QE in Indonesia is effective in supporting macro-financial stability, especially during crisis periods, with SUN, REER, and IHSG serving as key adjustment variables. Future research should incorporate higher-frequency data, structural models, and expert-based trigger indicators to refine the design of QE and adaptive monetary governance frameworks.

Pandemi COVID-19 mendorong Bank Indonesia mengaktifkan Quantitative Easing (QE) sebagai instrumen non-konvensional ketika efektivitas suku bunga melemah. Berbeda dengan kebijakan konvensional, QE bekerja melalui pembelian Surat Utang Negara (SUN) berskala besar untuk menstabilkan pasar keuangan, mendukung pemulihan ekonomi riil, dan menjaga keberlanjutan fiskal. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi dampak QE terhadap stabilitas makro-keuangan Indonesia dalam konteks transisi dari Impossible Trinity menuju New Monetary Trinity yang berfokus pada stabilitas harga, stabilitas sistem keuangan, dan keberlanjutan fiskal. Dengan menggunakan data triwulanan 2007–2023 dan metode ARDL, TVECM, BVECM, serta TVP-VECM, penelitian ini menangkap dinamika linear, nonlinier, dan time-varying. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa transmisi QE di Indonesia tidak lagi bertumpu pada jalur suku bunga, melainkan melalui SUN, nilai tukar riil efektif (REER), dan pasar saham (IHSG). TVECM menegaskan peran Error Correction Term (ECT) sebagai mekanisme stabilisasi pada rezim krisis, sementara BVECM dan TVP-VECM mengonfirmasi adanya penyesuaian jangka panjang yang konsisten dan perubahan efektivitas QE dari waktu ke waktu. Temuan ini menunjukkan keterbatasan Taylor Rule, Phillips Curve, dan model Mundell–Fleming pada negara berkembang yang menghadapi Zero Lower Bound dan keterbatasan struktural pasar keuangan. QE terbukti memperkuat tiga pilar New Monetary Trinity melalui stabilisasi pasar dan koordinasi moneter–fiskal. Implikasi kebijakan menekankan perlunya policy-mix adaptif: pembelian SUN yang terukur dan backstop likuiditas saat krisis, penarikan QE secara bertahap saat kondisi normal, serta aktivasi instrumen makroprudensial untuk meredam siklus keuangan. Secara keseluruhan, QE di Indonesia efektif mendukung stabilitas makro-keuangan, terutama pada periode krisis, dengan SUN, REER, dan IHSG sebagai variabel kunci penyesuaian. Penelitian lanjutan disarankan menggunakan data frekuensi tinggi, model struktural, dan indikator pemicu kebijakan berbasis preferensi pakar guna memperkuat desain QE dan kerangka Adaptive Monetary Governance di masa depan.