DINAMIKA DAYA SAING DAN PERMINTAAN EKSPOR PINANG INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL

Abstract

Ekspor berperan penting dalam meningkatkan PDB dan menunjang perekonomian Indonesia. Sebagai negara agraris Indonesia memiliki potensi yang besar di sektor perkebunan. Namun, selain komoditas unggulan, banyak komoditas nonunggulan yang juga berpotensi, seperti pinang. Meskipun tergolong nonunggulan, pinang menjadi salah satu komoditas dengan nilai ekspor terbesar di dunia, menguasai lebih dari 50 persen pasar global selama lebih dari 13 tahun terakhir. Posisi ini kini terancam oleh munculnya pesaing baru dari negara lain. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing dan permintaan ekspor pinang Indonesia di pasar internasional menggunakan data time series 2013–2024. Negara pesaing yang diamati adalah Myanmar, Thailand, dan India. Analisis dilakukan dengan metode RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) untuk mengukur daya saing, EPD (Export Product Dynamic) untuk melihat dinamika daya saing, dan AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) untuk menganalisis persaingan pinang Indonesia dengan negara pesaing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ekspor pinang Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang tinggi, menandakan daya saing yang kuat di pasar internasional. Namun, secara tren tahunan terjadi penurunan kinerja ekspor, terutama dalam delapan tahun terakhir. Berdasarkan analisis EPD, posisi daya saing pinang Indonesia berada pada kategori retreat pada periode 2013–2015 dan kemudian bergeser ke lost opportunity pada periode 2016–2024. Indonesia menghadapi persaingan ketat dari Myanmar dan Thailand yang juga memiliki daya saing kuat. Hasil analisis elastisitas harga menunjukkan bahwa permintaan pinang Indonesia bersifat inelastis atau tidak sensitif terhadap perubahan harga. Nilai elastisitas silang menunjukkan hubungan komplementer dengan pinang asal Myanmar dan India, serta hubungan substitusi dengan Thailand. Sementara itu, elastisitas pendapatan bernilai positif yang menandakan peningkatan permintaan seiring kenaikan pendapatan negara mitra dagang. Implikasi dari hasil penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya peningkatan produktivitas melalui teknologi pertanian modern, penguatan inovasi produk turunan, perluasan pasar ekspor, serta dukungan kebijakan pemerintah dalam memperkuat riset, promosi, dan diplomasi dagang. Upaya tersebut diharapkan dapat menjaga keberlanjutan daya saing pinang Indonesia dan memperkuat kontribusinya terhadap kinerja ekspor nasional

Exports play a crucial role in boosting GDP and supporting the Indonesian economy. As an agricultural country, Indonesia has substantial potential in the plantation sector. However, in addition to leading commodities, many non-leading commodities also possess significant potential, such as areca nut. Despite being classified as a non-leading commodity, areca nut is among the world’s most valuable export commodities, accounting for more than 50 percent of the global market for over 13 years. This strong position is now being challenged by the emergence of new competitors from other countries. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and export demand of Indonesian areca nut in the international market using time-series data from 2013 to 2024. The competing countries examined include Myanmar, Thailand, and India. The analysis employs the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) method to measure competitiveness, the Export Product Dynamic (EPD) method to assess the dynamics of competitiveness, and the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model to analyze competition between Indonesian areca nut and its competitors. The research findings indicate that Indonesia’s areca nut exports possess a strong comparative advantage, reflecting solid competitiveness in the international market. However, export performance has shown a declining trend annually, particularly over the past eight years. Based on the EPD analysis, Indonesia’s areca nut competitiveness was categorized as retreat during the 2013–2015 period and then shifted to lost opportunity in the 2016–2024 period. Indonesia faces intense competition from Myanmar and Thailand, which also demonstrate strong competitiveness. The price elasticity analysis reveals that the demand for Indonesian areca nut is inelastic, meaning it is not sensitive to price changes. The cross-price elasticity results indicate a complementary relationship with areca nuts from Myanmar and India, and a substitution relationship with Thailand. Meanwhile, income elasticity is positive, indicating that demand increases as the income of trading partner countries rises. The implications of this research highlight the importance of enhancing productivity through modern agricultural technology, strengthening innovation in derivative products, expanding export markets, and promoting supportive government policies in research, marketing, and trade diplomacy. These efforts are expected to sustain the competitiveness of Indonesia’s areca nut exports and reinforce their contribution to national export performance.