Dinamika Harga Pangan, Kinerja Perdagangan, dan Strategi Gerakan Nasional Pengendalian Inflasi Pangan serta Dampaknya Terhadap Kesejahteraan Masyarakat

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trade performance of rice, maize, and soybeans in Indonesia; assess the persistence of food inflation for these commodities in response to shocks stemming from fiscal policy, monetary policy, and natural factors; and examine the impact of the National Movement for Food Inflation Control (GNPIP), inflation in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco group, and price changes in rice, maize, and soybeans on per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Additionally, the research seeks to provide strategic, actionable recommendations for enhancing and optimizing the GNPIP to make food inflation control policies more targeted, effective, and sustainable. Primary and secondary data were comprehensively collected from January 2018 to December 2023. Primary data were gathered through field surveys, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and interviews with key stakeholders, including Farmer Groups (Gapoktan), Regional Food Security Agencies, Perum Bulog, Regional Development Planning Agencies (Bappeda), Bank Indonesia Representative Offices (KPwDN), the Ministry of Agriculture, and the National Food Agency. Secondary data were sourced from official and reliable institutions such as Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the Ministry of Agriculture, Trademap, and Bank Indonesia. Findings from the first objective, using a quantitative approach to assess trade performance, reveal that the Trade Specialization Index (ISP) for rice, maize, and soybeans indicates these commodities are still in the early export introduction phase, reflecting low international competitiveness. In contrast, processed rice derivatives such as rice flour, husks, bran, and other rice residues have already entered the export maturity phase. Similarly, maize derivatives including husks, bran, other residues, and maize meal are also in the export maturity stage. Soy sauce, a processed soybean product, is in the export expansion phase. According to the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR), Indonesia’s reliance on rice imports remains within reasonable limits. However, dependency on imported maize and soybeans remains high, except for processed maize, which shows lower import dependency. The Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) further confirms that domestic rice production nearly meets national demand, whereas domestic maize and soybean supplies fall short, except again for processed maize. Moreover, consistently negative values of the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicate that, throughout the study period, Indonesia’s rice, maize, and soybeans lacked strong comparative advantage or global market competitiveness. Results from the second objective, analyzed using the VECMX method, show that fiscal policy shocks particularly fuel price hikes were the most persistent and powerful driver of rice price increases. Monetary policy, represented by interest rates, exerted a smaller but still persistent inflationary effect on rice prices. Interestingly, natural factors especially rainfall tended to suppress rice prices in the long run, underscoring the critical role of production conditions and climate dynamics in shaping food price trends. For maize, fiscal policy (fuel prices) also had a positive, albeit modest yet persistent, impact on prices. Monetary policy, specifically agricultural credit interest rates initially raised maize prices but exerted a negative long-term effect. Rainfall exhibited a complex pattern: initially pushing prices up, but ultimately lowering them over time, likely reflecting market lags or oversupply during peak harvest seasons. Regarding soybeans, natural factors (rainfall) demonstrated relatively persistent long-term effects not so much by directly influencing production, but rather by affecting distribution logistics and market expectations. Fiscal policy (fuel prices) exerted a stable, positive influence on soybean prices, highlighting the structural role of logistics and energy costs, even if not as the dominant driver. Conversely, monetary policy (interest rates) suppressed soybean prices in the long term. Bank Indonesia’s interest rate hikes often attracted foreign capital inflows, strengthening the rupiah and thereby lowering the domestic price of soybeans. Findings from the third objective, estimated via Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression, indicate that inflation in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco group, as well as price changes in rice, maize, and soybeans, did not significantly affect per capita GRDP. However, the GNPIP policy demonstrated a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita GRDP. Although GNPIP did not significantly moderate the effect of rice inflation on per capita GRDP, it emerged as a crucial driver of broader household welfare. This positive impact operates not through direct inflation reduction, but through indirect mechanisms, such as the “announcement effect” which help prevent panic buying, bolster public confidence, stimulate household consumption, and enhance supply chain efficiency. Results from the fourth objective, derived from SWOT analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), position the GNPIP program in Quadrant V (“Maintain and Strengthen”) for controlling inflation in rice, maize, and soybeans. This classification indicates that GNPIP is already strategically positioned and should be sustained and reinforced. Based on priority analysis, eight main alternative strategies are identified as important steps for controlling rice inflation, namely: (1) Strengthening the resistance of rice commodities; (2) support for rice distribution facilitation; (3) optimization of cooperation between regions; (4) planning, monitoring, and supervision; (5) strengthening digitalization and rice data; (6) Strengthening coordination and communication; (7) support for the optimization of market operations (OP)/ Market operation/ SPHP/ GPM; and (8) Strengthening the capacity of independent food cultivation. In corn commodities, priority strategies include: (1) Strengthening the resistance of corn commodities; (2) support for facilitation of corn distribution; (3) planning, monitoring, and supervision; (4) strengthening digitalization and corn data; (5) optimization of cooperation between regions; (6) Strengthening coordination and communication; (7) strengthening the capacity of independent food cultivation; and (8) Optimization of OP/ Market operation/ SPHP/ GPM. Meanwhile, the priority strategy for controlling soybean inflation consists of: (1) Strengthening the resistance of soybean commodities; (2) strengthening digitalization and soybean data; (3) Strengthening coordination and communication; (4) optimization of cooperation between regions; (5) support for facilitation of soybean distribution; (6) Optimization of OP/ Market operation/ SPHP/ GPM; (7) planning, monitoring, and supervision; and (8) strengthening the capacity of independent soybean cultivation. These strategies provide concrete direction to strengthen the effectiveness of GNPIP in controlling food inflation more on target and sustainable.