Penyebab dan Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Pertanian di Negara Penghasil Komoditas Pertanian Utama Dunia

Abstract

Sektor pertanian merupakan fondasi penting dalam pembangunan ekonomi global karena menyediakan pangan, lapangan kerja, serta bahan baku industri. Namun, keberlanjutannya menghadapi ancaman serius dari perubahan iklim yang berdampak langsung maupun tidak langsung terhadap produksi dan produktivitas. Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) menganalisis dampak faktor-faktor penyebab perubahan iklim di negara-negara penghasil komoditas pertanian utama, (2) menilai pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian di negara-negara tersebut, dan (3) menelaah dampaknya secara khusus terhadap sektor pertanian di Indonesia sebagai studi kasus negara berkembang dalam konteks pembangunan ekonomi berkelanjutan di era perubahan iklim. Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder dari 35 negara utama penghasil komoditas pertanian dunia dalam kurun waktu 1990–2020, dianalisis dengan pendekatan Panel ARDL, serta robustness check melalui metode FMOLS dan DOLS. Negara-negara tersebut dikelompokkan ke dalam klasifikasi berdasarkan pendapatan (tinggi, menengah atas, menengah bawah) serta regional (7 kawasan dunia). Temuan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan iklim dipengaruhi secara kompleks oleh variabel ekonomi dan energi di tiap negara. Pada kelompok negara berpendapatan tinggi, konsumsi listrik mendorong peningkatan emisi CO2 meskipun ada upaya efisiensi dan transisi ke energi terbarukan. Di kelompok menengah atas, pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi pendorong utama emisi akibat industrialisasi yang masih berbasis bahan bakar fosil. Namun demikian, sektor pertanian justru efisien dan berkontribusi pada penurunan emisi CO2. Di negara menengah bawah, pertanian dan konsumsi energi meningkatkan emisi, mencerminkan ketergantungan pada energi fosil serta rendahnya efisiensi pertanian. Secara regional, Eropa & Asia Tengah berhasil menekan emisi melalui transisi energi hijau. Asia Timur & Pasifik masih bergantung pada bahan bakar fosil, meskipun energi terbarukan mulai memberikan dampak positif. Di Amerika Latin & Karibia, terjadi indikasi proses Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) dengan urbanisasi dan pertanian yang justru menurunkan emisi. Sebaliknya, di Timur Tengah & Afrika Utara dan Sub-Sahara Afrika, ekspansi lahan dan ketergantungan energi fosil menyebabkan peningkatan emisi. Amerika Utara dan Asia Selatan menghadapi dominasi konsumsi minyak dalam pertumbuhan ekonominya, meskipun energi terbarukan mulai dikembangkan. Secara umum, pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia masih bertumpu pada energi fosil. Peran energi terbarukan lebih menonjol di negara maju, yang disertai kebijakan lingkungan ketat, namun belum merata di negara berkembang. Analisis jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP) dan input pertanian berpengaruh signifikan terhadap peningkatan nilai produksi pertanian. Dampak perubahan iklim sangat bervariasi menurut pendapatan dan wilayah. Di negara berpendapatan tinggi, curah hujan, GDP, dan pupuk berdampak positif terhadap produksi. Di kelompok menengah bawah, input pertanian dan TFP (Total Factor Productivity) menjadi variabel penting, sementara tenaga kerja pertanian berdampak negatif. Di negara menengah atas, GDP dan emisi CO2 justru berdampak positif terhadap produksi, mengindikasikan adanya proses industrialisasi pertanian yang efisien. Regionalisasi juga memperlihatkan perbedaan mencolok. Di Asia Timur & Pasifik, curah hujan, emisi CO2, dan GDP memberikan dampak positif signifikan. Di Eropa & Asia Tengah, curah hujan berdampak negatif, namun mekanisasi dan penggunaan pupuk berdampak positif. Amerika Latin & Karibia menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan dari kapital dan emisi CO2. Timur Tengah & Afrika Utara serta Sub-Sahara Afrika ditopang oleh input total dan faktor produksi, sementara Amerika Utara mengandalkan SDM berkualitas dan mekanisasi tinggi. Asia Selatan menghadapi dampak signifikan dari curah hujan dan suhu terhadap hasil pertanian. Jangka pendek memperlihatkan bahwa nilai produksi tahun sebelumnya, GDP, input pertanian, pupuk, TFP, dan emisi CO2 masih dominan. Beberapa wilayah dipengaruhi oleh tenaga kerja, kapital, energi terbarukan, dan input produksi lain, memperkuat temuan bahwa keseimbangan antara dinamika jangka pendek dan jangka panjang sangat penting. Di Indonesia, sektor pertanian masih bergantung pada pertumbuhan ekonomi dan perluasan lahan. Perubahan iklim belum berdampak signifikan secara statistik, namun tantangan ekologis nyata seperti banjir, kekeringan, dan bencana alam lainnya menunjukkan bahwa adaptasi dan mitigasi tetap krusial. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan 1% luas lahan dapat menaikkan produksi sebesar 0,52%, dan GDP sebesar 0,56%. Dalam model nilai produksi, efeknya masing-masing sebesar 0,37% dan 0,47%. Pada jangka pendek, lahan, pupuk, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan. Karena dampak perubahan iklim belum signifikan, maka kebijakan diarahkan pada peningkatan investasi, efisiensi produksi, serta teknologi adaptif. Pemerintah perlu mendorong modernisasi melalui digitalisasi pasar, irigasi presisi, pupuk organik, dan memperkuat NDC nasional untuk mencapai target pengurangan emisi. Penelitian ini menempatkan dinamika ekonomi dan iklim dalam kerangka green growth dan degrowth. Negara maju dapat memprioritaskan degrowth melalui efisiensi dan transisi energi, sementara negara berkembang masih membutuhkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun harus diimbangi oleh investasi hijau dan efisiensi pertanian. Kebijakan harus mempertimbangkan struktur ekonomi dan lingkungan masing-masing wilayah. Negara berindustrialisasi tinggi perlu mempercepat transisi hijau, sedangkan negara berkembang perlu mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap energi fosil di sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini menawarkan rekomendasi kebijakan yang kontekstual: 1) Negara berpendapatan tinggi: Fokus pada dekarbonisasi pertanian dengan mendorong inovasi teknologi, insentif pertanian berkelanjutan, dan diplomasi iklim melalui pembiayaan serta transfer teknologi. 2) Negara menengah atas: Transisi energi pertanian melalui insentif fiskal, subsidi hijau, serta Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) pada rantai pasok pertanian. 3) Negara menengah bawah: Adaptasi terhadap variabilitas iklim, perluasan akses ke pembiayaan mikro dan asuransi iklim, serta partisipasi masyarakat lokal dan LSM. 4) Indonesia: Meskipun dampak iklim belum signifikan secara statistik, namun modernisasi, desentralisasi kebijakan iklim hingga ke desa, serta insentif petani kecil sangat penting untuk adaptasi masa depan. 5) Solidaritas Internasional: Kerja sama antarnegara perlu diarahkan secara strategis—kelompok pendapatan fokus pada mitigasi, sementara kelompok regional fokus pada adaptasi. 6) Peran LSM dan masyarakat sipil: Penguatan kapasitas, kampanye kesadaran pangan lokal, pelatihan adaptasi bagi petani, serta pembelajaran perubahan iklim di semua jenjang pendidikan. 7) Lembaga Keuangan Internasional dan donor: Dukungan finansial dan pengembangan produk asuransi iklim berbasis emisi, serta pembiayaan NDC negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan iklim memengaruhi sektor pertanian secara berbeda di setiap kelompok negara, tergantung pada faktor ekonomi, kebijakan, dan karakteristik lingkungan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sektor pertanian berkontribusi terhadap emisi CO2, namun transisi energi terbarukan masih belum cukup kuat secara global. Variabel GDP, input pertanian, curah hujan, dan pupuk menjadi penentu utama kinerja pertanian. Di sisi lain, peran emisi CO2 dan perubahan iklim sangat kontekstual berdasarkan lokasi dan kapasitas kebijakan negara. Strategi pembangunan berkelanjutan harus mempertimbangkan ketimpangan ekonomi dan struktur lingkungan yang ada. Sebagai studi yang mengintegrasikan ekonomi dan lingkungan, disertasi ini menegaskan pentingnya perumusan kebijakan pertanian dan energi yang sinergis dalam menghadapi krisis iklim. Terakhir, meskipun pertanian global terus beradaptasi, pembangunan berkelanjutan hanya dapat tercapai melalui kebijakan lintas sektor dan kolaborasi global yang serius, khususnya untuk mengatasi ketergantungan ekonomi pada bahan bakar fosil.

The agricultural sector serves as a critical foundation for global economic development by providing food, employment, and raw materials for industry. However, its sustainability is increasingly threatened by climate change, which affects production and productivity both directly and indirectly. This study aims to: (1) analyze the drivers of climate change in countries that are major producers of agricultural commodities, (2) assess the impact of climate change on the performance of the agricultural sector in these countries, and (3) examine the specific impacts on Indonesia’s agricultural sector as a case study of a developing country within the context of sustainable economic development in the era of climate change. The research utilizes secondary data from 35 leading agricultural commodity-producing countries over the period 1990–2020. A Panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach is employed for analysis, with robustness checks using FMOLS and DOLS methods. The countries are classified by income level (high, upper-middle, lower-middle) and by region (seven global regions). Findings reveal that climate change is influenced in complex ways by economic and energy-related variables in each country. In high-income countries, electricity consumption contributes to increased CO2 emissions despite efforts toward energy efficiency and a shift to renewables. In upper-middle-income countries, economic growth, largely driven by fossil-fuel-based industrialization, is the main driver of emissions. Interestingly, the agricultural sector in this group is relatively efficient and contributes to lowering CO2 emissions. In lower-middle-income countries, agriculture and energy consumption increase emissions, reflecting reliance on fossil fuels and low agricultural efficiency. Regionally, Europe and Central Asia have succeeded in reducing emissions through a green energy transition. East Asia and the Pacific remain dependent on fossil fuels, although renewable energy is beginning to show a positive impact. In Latin America and the Caribbean, evidence suggests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is at play, with urbanization and agriculture contributing to emission reductions. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa, face rising emissions due to land expansion and fossil fuel dependence. North America and South Asia are characterized by oil-driven economic growth, though renewable energy is gradually being developed. Globally, economic growth still largely depends on fossil fuels. Renewable energy plays a more significant role in developed countries, supported by stricter environmental policies, but its adoption remains uneven in developing nations. Long-run analysis shows that economic growth (GDP) and agricultural inputs significantly influence increases in agricultural production value. The effects of climate change vary significantly by income level and region. In high-income countries, rainfall, GDP, and fertilizer usage positively influence production. In lower-middle-income countries, agricultural inputs and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) are key variables, while agricultural labor negatively affects production. In upper-middle-income countries, both GDP and CO2 emissions positively influence production, indicating a trend of efficient agricultural industrialization. Regional disparities are also notable. In East Asia and the Pacific, rainfall, CO2 emissions, and GDP have significant positive effects. In Europe and Central Asia, rainfall has a negative effect, but mechanization and fertilizer usage are beneficial. In Latin America and the Caribbean, capital investment and CO2 emissions play significant roles. In the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, total inputs and production factors support agricultural growth, while North America relies on high-quality human capital and advanced mechanization. South Asia is significantly affected by rainfall and temperature. In the short run, previous-year production value, GDP, agricultural inputs, fertilizers, TFP, and CO2 emissions are dominant factors. Some regions are also influenced by labor, capital, renewable energy, and other production inputs—highlighting the importance of balancing short- and long-term dynamics. In Indonesia, the agricultural sector still relies on economic growth and land expansion. Although the statistical impact of climate change is not yet significant, ecological challenges such as floods, droughts, and natural disasters underscore the critical need for adaptation and mitigation. The findings show that a 1% increase in agricultural land area can raise production by 0.52%, while a 1% increase in GDP can raise production by 0.56%. In terms of production value, the effects are 0.37% and 0.47%, respectively. In the short run, land, fertilizer, and economic growth significantly affect production. Given the statistically insignificant impact of climate change, policies should prioritize investment, production efficiency, and adaptive technologies. The government must promote modernization through market digitalization, precision irrigation, organic fertilizers, and the strengthening of national NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) to meet emission reduction targets. This study frames the interaction between economic and climate dynamics within the paradigms of green growth and degrowth. Developed countries may prioritize degrowth through efficiency and energy transition, while developing countries still require economic growth—but this must be accompanied by green investment and agricultural efficiency. Policy strategies must consider the unique economic structures and environmental contexts of each region. Highly industrialized nations must accelerate green transitions, while developing countries need to reduce fossil fuel dependence in agriculture. The study offers contextual policy recommendations: 1) High-income countries should focus on decarbonizing agriculture by promoting technological innovation, sustainable farming incentives, and climate diplomacy through financing and technology transfer. 2) Upper-middle-income countries should pursue agricultural energy transitions via fiscal incentives, green subsidies, and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) across supply chains. 3) Lower-middle-income countries need to enhance climate adaptation through microfinance access, climate insurance, and engagement with local communities and NGOs. 4) Indonesia must prioritize modernization, policy decentralization down to the village level, and support for smallholders—despite statistically insignificant climate impacts. 5) International solidarity should be structured: income-based groups focus on mitigation, while regional groupings prioritize adaptation. 6) NGOs and civil society should strengthen capacity-building, promote local food awareness, provide farmer training in adaptation strategies, and integrate climate education across all levels. 7) International financial institutions and donors must support climate insurance mechanisms based on emissions and provide financing for NDC implementation in developing countries such as Indonesia. This research demonstrates that climate change affects the agricultural sector differently across country groups, shaped by economic, policy, and environmental contexts. While economic growth and agriculture contribute to CO2 emissions, the global transition to renewable energy remains insufficient. Variables such as GDP, agricultural inputs, rainfall, and fertilizer are key determinants of agricultural performance. The role of CO2 emissions and climate change is highly contextual, depending on geographic location and national policy capacity. Sustainable development strategies must account for existing economic inequalities and environmental structures. As a study that integrates economic and environmental perspectives, this dissertation underscores the urgency of formulating synergistic agricultural and energy policies in response to the climate crisis. Ultimately, while the global agricultural sector continues to adapt, sustainable development can only be achieved through serious cross-sectoral policy integration and global collaboration—particularly to overcome the ongoing dependence on fossil fuels.