Estimasi Kerugian Ekonomi Banjir Rob dan Potensi Mitigasi Mangrove Nature-Based Solutions di Muara Angke

Abstract

Kawasan pesisir di Jakarta Utara, Muara Angke menghadapi banjir rob hampir sepanjang tahun akibat kombinasi kenaikan muka air laut, penurunan muka tanah, dan perubahan iklim. Fenomena ini menyebabkan kerugian ekonomi signifikan serta menuntut strategi mitigasi yang berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk (1) mengestimasi kerugian ekonomi akibat banjir rob; (2) menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi kesediaan masyarakat dalam melakukan mitigasi; dan (3) merumuskan potensi penerapan Nature-Based Solutions berbasis mangrove sebagai strategi mitigasi. Penelitian dilakukan di Rukun Warga 22 Muara Angke menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif, melalui pendekatan harga pasar (Averting Behaviour Method dan Human Capital Approach), regresi logistik, dan skala likert berbasis pentahelix. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa total kerugian ekonomi masyarakat mencapai Rp628.546.665,38 pada tahun 2024, dengan proporsi kerugian terbesar dialami oleh masyarakat di wilayah pesisir laut. Kesediaan masyarakat dalam melakukan mitigasi penanaman mangrove dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh variabel jarak rumah ke laut, pendapatan, ketinggian banjir, dan lama tinggal. Potensi implementasi mangrove NBS menunjukkan bahwa pada aspek fisik tergolong sedang, aspek biaya tergolong rendah, dan aspek kelembagaan tergolong tinggi.

The coastal area of North Jakarta, Muara Angke, faces tidal flooding almost year-round due to a combination of sea level rise, land subsidence, and climate change. This phenomenon causes significant economic losses and requires sustainable mitigation strategies. This study aims are (1) to estimate the economic losses caused by tidal flooding; (2) to analyze the factors influencing community willingness to engage in mitigation efforts; and (3) to formulate the potential application of mangrove Nature-Based Solutions as a mitigation strategy. The research was conducted in Rukun Warga 22 Muara Angke using a descriptive quantitative approach, through a market price approach (Averting Behaviour Method and Human Capital Approach), logistic regression, and a pentahelix-based Likert scale. The results of the study indicate that The total economic losses incurred by the community amount to IDR628.546.665,38 in 2024, with the largest proportion of losses experienced by communities in coastal areas; The willingness of the community to undertake mangrove planting mitigation is significantly influenced by the variables of distance from home to the sea, income, flood depth, and length of stay; The potential for implementing mangrove NBS indicates that in the physical aspect is moderate, cost aspect is low, and for the institutional aspect is high.