Pemetaan Kesesuaian Habitat Rusa Timor (Rusa timorensis) melalui Pemodelan Maximum Entropy di Taman Nasional Baluran

Abstract

Rusa timor (Rusa timorensis) merupakan satwa endemik Indonesia yang dilindungi karena populasinya terus menurun, termasuk di Taman Nasional Baluran (TNB), akibat perubahan tutupan lahan, invasi spesies asing, tingginya serangan predator alami, dan perburuan liar. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kesesuaian habitat rusa timor dan faktor lingkungan yang memengaruhi distribusinya menggunakan model maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Data kehadiran rusa timor diperoleh melalui inventarisasi dan observasi lapang, kemudian dikombinasikan dengan data variabel lingkungan seperti tutupan lahan, elevasi, kelerengan, jarak terhadap fitur penting (sabana, sumber air, garis pantai), suhu permukaan, serta indeks fragmentasi lanskap. Analisis multikolinearitas dilakukan untuk menyaring variabel bebas, dan model MaxEnt memiliki nilai AUC sebesar 0,806. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa dari total luas ±25.000 ha, sebagian besar habitat masuk kategori kurang sesuai (15.655 ha), Habitat yang sangat sesuai seluas 1.907 ha. Variabel paling berpengaruh terhadap keberadaan rusa timor meliputi jarak dari garis pantai, jarak dari sumber air, suhu permukaan, dan mean patch fractal dimesion.

The javan deer (Rusa timorensis) is an endemic species of Indonesia that is protected due to its declining population, including in Baluran National Park (TNB), as a result of land cover change, invasion of alien species, high levels of natural predation, and poaching. This study aims to analyze the habitat suitability of the Timor deer and the environmental factors that influence its distribution using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Timor deer presence data were obtained through inventory and field observations, then combined with environmental variable data such as land cover, elevation, slope, distance to important features (savanna, water sources, coastline), surface temperature, and landscape fragmentation index. Multicollinearity analysis was conducted to filter independent variables, and the MaxEnt model had an AUC value of 0,806. Results showed that out of a total area of ±25.000 ha, most of the habitat was classified as poorly suitable (15.655 ha), while highly suitable habitat covered 1.907 ha. The most influential variables affecting the presence of Timor deer include distance from the coastline, distance from water sources, surface temperature, and mean patch fractal dimension.