Analisis Daya Saing dan Determinan Ekspor Teh Hitam Indonesia ke Negara Tujuan Ekspor

Abstract

Teh hitam (HS 090240) menjadi paling banyak diekspor dengan kontribusi sebesar 83,69 persen terhadap total ekspor teh. Namun beberapa tahun terakhir mengalami tren yang menurun. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis daya saing komoditas teh hitam Indonesia di negara tujuan ekspor serta determinan ekspornya tahun 2014-2023. Metode yang digunakan yaitu RCA, EPD, X-Model, dan regresi data panel. Hasil RCA teh hitam Indonesia memiliki daya saing yang kuat di sebagian besar negara tujuan. Hasil EPD membuktikan posisi pasar ekspor teh hitam Indonesia berada di posisi rising star (Polandia), lost opportunity (Amerika Serikat, China, Malaysia, Pakistan, dan Rusia), falling star (Jepang dan Thailand), retreat (Jerman dan Uni Emirat Arab). Hasil X-Model membuktikan ekspor teh hitam Indonesia ke negara Polandia termasuk pengembangan pasar optimis, Negara Amerika Serikat, China, Malaysia, Russia, dan Thailand termasuk pengembangan pasar yang potensial. Negara Jepang, Jerman, Pakistan, dan Uni Emirat Arab termasuk pengembangan pasar yang kurang potensial. Hasil regresi data panel mengindikasikan variabel PDB riil, indeks RCA, jarak ekonomi, harga ekspor, dan nilai tukar riil berdampak signifikan terhadap volume ekspor teh hitam Indonesia.

Black tea (HS 090240) is the most widely exported type and accounts for 83.69% of total tea exports. However, there has been a downward trend in recent years. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesia's black tea in export destination countries and determinants export from 2014 to 2023. Methods used include RCA, EPD, X-Model, and panel data regression. RCA results indicate that Indonesian black tea is highly competitive in most export destination countries. The EPD results show that Indonesia's black tea export market position is in the rising star (Poland), lost opportunity (United States, China, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Russia), falling star (Japan and Thailand), retreat (Germany and the United Arab Emirates). X-Model results show Indonesia's black tea exports to Poland are in an optimistic market development phase. United States, China, Malaysia, Russia, and Thailand are in a potentially promising phase. Japan, Germany, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates are in a less promising phase. Panel data regression results indicate that real GDP, the RCA index, economic distance, export prices, and real exchange rates significantly impact the volume of Indonesia's black tea exports.