Tingkat Risiko Iklim Wilayah Pesisir terhadap Angin Kencang dan Proyeksinya di Kabupaten Wakatobi

Abstract

Perubahan iklim menyebabkan peningkatan frekuensi dan intensitas iklim ekstrem, termasuk angin kencang, yang berdampak terhadap ekosistem pesisir, laut, serta kehidupan masyarakat pesisir. Kabupaten Wakatobi merupakan wilayah kepulauan yang menghadapi ancaman perubahan iklim. Gambaran dampak perubahan iklim diperlukan untuk menyesuaikan kebijakan adaptasi dan mitigasi yang didapatkan melalui identifikasi risiko iklim berdasarkan kerangka IPCC AR5. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan dan menganalisis tingkat risiko iklim historis dan proyeksi terhadap kejadian angin kencang di Kabupaten Wakatobi, khususnya di Desa Wapia-pia, Waha dan Koroe Onawa. Ketiga desa tersebut memiliki persentase nelayan paling tinggi. Proyeksi kejadian angin kencang diperoleh dari model CMIP6 berdasarkan dua skenario iklim, yaitu SSP2-4.5 dan SSP5-8.5. Tingkat risiko iklim historis dan proyeksi bulanan Desa Waha lebih tinggi daripada Desa Wapia-pia dan Koroe Onawa. Sebanyak 55% rumah tangga Desa Koroe Onawa, 52% rumah tangga Desa Waha, dan 33% rumah tangga Desa Wapia-pia berada pada tingkat risiko iklim tinggi pada periode historis. Tingkat risiko iklim di masa depan diproyeksikan semakin meningkat. Tingkat risiko iklim proyeksi skenario SSP5-8.5 lebih tinggi daripada proyeksi skenario SSP2-4.5. Tingkat risiko iklim berdasarkan rumah tangga mengalami kenaikan satu tingkat di masa depan. Kondisi tersebut memerlukan peningkatan kemampuan adaptif untuk meminimalkan dampak di masa depan.

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including strong winds, which affect coastal and marine ecosystems as well as the livelihoods of coastal communities. Wakatobi Regency, an archipelagic region, faces significant threats from climate change. An overview of climate change impacts is needed to adjust adaptation and mitigation policies, obtained through climate risk identification based on the IPCC AR5 framework. This study aims to determine and analyze the historical and projected levels of climate risk associated with strong wind events in Wakatobi Regency, particularly in Wapia-pia, Waha, and Koroe Onawa Villages. These three villages have the highest proportion of fishers. Projections of strong wind events are derived from ensemble models of CMIP6 climate models under two climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Historical and projected monthly climate risk levels in Waha are higher than in Wapia-pia and Koroe Onawa. In the historical period, 55% of households in Koroe Onawa, 52% in Waha, and 33% in Wapia-pia were at high climate risk. Future climate risk is projected to increase, with risk levels under SSP5-8.5 higher than SSP2-4.5, and household-based risks increasing by one level in the future. This condition requires enhancing adaptive capacity to minimize future impacts.