Determinan Ekspor dan Ekuivalen Tarif Ekspor Besi dan Baja Indonesia ke Beberapa Negara Anggota Uni Eropa

Abstract

Ekspor besi dan baja Indonesia ke Uni Eropa memiliki tren meningkat dari tahun 2005-2023. Uni Eropa menerapkan berbagai kebijakan, baik tarif maupun nontarif yang dapat menghambat ekspor ke wilayah tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing, posisi pasar, klasterisasi potensi pengembangan, determinan, dan besarnya ekuivalen tarif ekspor besi dan baja Indonesia ke Uni Eropa. Metode yang digunakan adalah RCA, EPD, X-Model Potential Product, regresi data panel, dan estimasi ekuivalen tarif. Hasil menunjukan komoditas besi dan baja memiliki daya saing di negara Belanda, Belgia, Italia, Polandia, dan Spanyol; posisi pasar falling star dan rising star, serta potensi pengembangan pasar optimis, potensial, dan kurang potensial. Analisis regresi data panel menunjukan PDB importir, jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar riil, dan RCA berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Variabel PDB eksportir dan harga ekspor berpengaruh negatif signifikan sedangkan dummy pandemi covid tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Rata-rata ekuivalen tarif menunjukan negara Belanda memiliki ekuivalen tarif terendah sedangkan Perancis memilliki ekuivalen tarif tertinggi.

Indonesian iron and steel exports to the European Union have shown an increasing trend from 2005 to 2023. The European Union has implemented various policies, both tariff and non-tariff, that can hinder exports to the region. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness, market position, clustering of development potential, determinants, and the amount of tariff equivalents for Indonesian iron and steel exports in the European Union. The methods used are RCA, EPD, X-Model Potential Product, panel data regression, and tariff equivalent estimation. The results show that iron and steel commodities are competitive in Belgium, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Netherland; falling star and rising star market positions, and optimistic, potential, and less potential market development potential. Panel data regression analysis shows that importer GDP, economic distance, real exchange rate, and RCA have a positive and significant effect. Exporter GDP and export price variables have a significant negative effect, while the COVID-19 pandemic dummy has no significant effect. The average tariff equivalent shows that the Netherlands has the lowest tariff equivalent, while France has the highest.